Division Run Down: AL West

Something about a four team division makes it seem like a crap shoot every year.  Though this time I think there's a particular order popping up more often than not.  But of course, that usually means nothing...

The Favorite: Texas Rangers

They won the division comfortably last year, made the World Series, and though they lost their ace, the Rangers added free agent Adrian Beltre, they have the reigning American League MVP, and they will trot out a couple young starters showing promise, most notably Derek Holland.  They aren't without questions: Can Josh Hamilton say healthy, will Colby Lewis duplicate his 2010, and of course, what role will Neftali Feliz ultimately settle into?  Still, no other team in the West is in position to pass the Rangers.

The Neglected: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners lost 100 games last season for the second time in three years.  Much has been said about the unlikelihood of everyone on the team playing as poorly as they did, which should put them in line for an increased win total without changing much.  That being said, it's not hard to go up from 61, and they're still putting a lot of faith in youngsters Saunders and Smoak, and have very little starting pitching depth behind Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez.  It's unlikely Seattle sniffs the .500 mark this year.

Most Likable Team: Oakland Athletics

It's funny, throughout the 90's the A's were unquestionably my least favorite team in baseball.  As a young, impressionable baseball fan I was left with a bad taste in my mouth when the Reds weren't given much of a chance going in the 1990 World Series.  That feeling lingered as players like McGwire, Canseco, Henderson, and Stewart just struck me as unlikable.

All that changed at the turn of the century when the A's were the focus of a new kind of baseball and the subject of some book that a bunch of people read.  Now the A's play the role of perpetual underdog as they try to win with less, endlessly searching for baseball market inefficiencies.  A stash of young, promising starters and a handful of slick fielding batsmen with some power peppered in here and there gives this team just enough to be interesting.

Least Likable Team: Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim?)

Having only four teams limits our choices here (though I never really made it a rule that I wouldn't select a team for more than one category, it just kind of worked out that way so far).  But I think the Angels fit the bill here.  Acquiring Vernon Wells this offseason probably qualifies them immediately (I have nothing against Wells personally, it's just clearly an unlikable move).  Add in their silly name changes and I think it's an open and shut case.

Potential story line:

Is Billy Beane back?  I admittedly haven't had much of a chance to keep up with this story, but wasn't there talk of Beane being more interested in soccer than baseball last year?  Add in the fact that the A's haven't finished above .500 since 2006 and to most people Moneyball is a distant memory (or something to be proven ineffective).  If the A's young pitchers keep improving and the offense produces just enough to compliment their above average run prevention, I personally would like to see the Moneyball naysayers put back in their place just a bit (or at least we can try and convince them that they just don't understand what they're talking about, but that seems unlikely).

Overall Result: (slightly adjusted...)

Rangers 87 (+1)
Athletics 83
Angels 79 (+1)
Mariners 73

Division Run Down: AL Central

Today we move westerly in the American League and take on the Central, where it appears we'll have three teams battling it out for most of the season...

The Favorite: Minnesota Twins

I don't know if you can officially call any of the Twins, White Sox, or Tigers the "favorite", but the way I see it, this team has finished first the past three years (though technically they were tied with the White Sox in 2008 and lost the one game playoff), and are the favorites until someone else proves otherwise.  After eight months Justin Morneau has finally seen live big league action, and assuming he can make a full recovery, I think you have to project this team slightly ahead of it's competitors.  Remember, they did it last year without any help from Joe Nathan and only half a year from Morneau.

The Neglected: Kansas City Royals

The Royals have finished 4th or 5th in the AL Central for seven straight years.  They just traded away their ace.  They signed Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera in the offseason.  Recipe for a turnaround?  No.  But everyone knows what the Royals are playing for, and that's 2013 and beyond.  As for 2011, fans will have to be content with battling for 4th place and having a Yuni-less infield.

Most Likable Team: Chicago White Sox

The Twins are very likable.  Small market.  Down-to-earth face of the franchise catcher.  But I'm going with the White Sox here because they hit a lot of homeruns, and I think Adam Dunn and Mark Buehrle are two of the more interesting guys in baseball.  Having seen a lot of Adam Dunn in Cincinnati, he really is one of the funniest players I've heard talk.  And seriously, doesn't Buehrle seem to do something awesome and bad ass pretty much every year (see here for proof).  Besides all that, I live in Chicago, and it's always good to support the hometown team (even if I don't live on the south side).

Least Likable Team: Cleveland Indians

This is probably more of a personal thing rather than a widespread sentiment.  They just seem like a team of no consequence that really isn't doing much of anything.  And it makes me sad.  I mean, what happened to Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner and Matt LaPorta and Fausto Carmona (speaking of, who on earth assembled that rotation).  And I feel bad for Shin-Soo Choo because he really is one of the ten best outfielders in baseball and doesn't get much credit for it.  Hard to say when they'll become relevant again.

Potential story line:

The easy answer here is Miguel Cabrera, and it's my blog so I'm going with the easy answer.  I hope the guy can get back on track, because he is good at hitting a baseball, and it'd be a shame, both for him and for us, if that talent was wasted in any way.

Overall Result:

Twins 87
White Sox 85
Tigers 82
Indians 69
Royals 67

Division Run Down: AL East

Inspired by my Oriole-themed tweet/note from yesterday, I'd like to try something a little different (different as in non-Reds related*).  I know there are millions of places to go to find preseason predictions, but since all those other places have little to do with me personally, I'd like to do my own division-by-division run down before the season starts, hopefully in a way that's at least little bit different and keeps things interesting.  Also note that I hope to do this mostly off-the-cuff, without a significant amount of in depth research (though I imagine I won't be able to help myself and will still look stuff up as I'm going along).

*This may become less of an exception for the time being for one main reason.  Last week I applied to MLB's Ultimate Dream Job (learn more here).  I honestly have no idea what to expect, but I figured hey, why not give it a shot.  Because really, I can't imagine a more aptly named job.  And since I included a link to this site on the application, I'm trying to include a few things from around the league.  You know... showcase my supposed versatility.

That said, let's dive right in with baseball toughest division, the AL East...

The Favorite: Boston Red Sox

No surprise here.  I don't think you could find another team listed atop any version of the 2011 projected standings.

The Neglected:  Toronto Blue Jays

This has been written about countless times, but the AL East is just brutal.  And now that you can no longer count on the Rays to annually occupy the cellar, it's even worse.  You're either going to see the Blue Jays or the Orioles here, and if you've been paying any attention at all you know my newly found bias isn't letting Baltimore in the basement.

It's almost as disheartening putting the Blue Jays there however as it seems, along with a handful of other teams, Toronto has a pretty stat-centric front office.  And of course Alex Anthopoulos is an intriguing figure and personally I'd like to see him do well.

Unfortunately for Major League Baseball's Canadian representative, it seems they will once again fall victim to the depth of the AL East.  The offense showed last year it can hit some homeruns, but was it a Rogers Center phenomenon?  Overall it still lacks some punch, and their young staff doesn't look quite as impressive to me as the O's.

One thing Jays fans should be celebrating all year long?  A Vernon Wells-less outfield (or more importantly, a Vernon Wells contract-less budget).

Most likable team: Baltimore Orioles

In this section I hope to add some personal flavor by choosing a team in each division I'm somewhat inclined to root for.  In this case, the Rays might be a favorite for some, but I'm all about new blood, and at this point the Rays have been at or near the top for three or so years and I'm ready for someone else to rise above the oppression.  I'm not saying the Orioles are going to the playoffs or anything, but let's preview that lineup...

Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Derrek Lee
Mark Reynolds
Vlad Guerrero
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
J.J. Hardy
Adam Jones

That is solid top to bottom.  Yeah there are some veterans with question marks (Lee, Guerrero) and some younger guys with question marks (Wieters, Jones), but there's enough stability and enough upside that I think it could turn out well.  At least fun to watch.

Least likable team: New York Yankees

You were expecting somebody else?

Potential story line:

If either of the Red Sox' new toys struggles at all out of the gate, it'll be big news.  The Red Sox are coming off of what they would consider a down year.  They spent lots of money, traded for the biggest name out there, and now have all the pressure that comes with it.  I think Adrian Gonzalez could have a giant year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the MVP.  But with great expectations comes the potential for a great letdown.

Overall Result:

Red Sox 95
Yankees 92
Rays 87
Orioles 80
Blue Jays 72

Odds and Ends

Having some friends over for dinner tonight but wanted to get a few thoughts in...

--Just tweeted this, but I'm slowly becoming an Orioles fan (secondary to the Reds of course).  They made a lot of interesting offseason moves, seem to be set at every position, have a young pitching staff, and of course play the role of underdog every year in the loaded AL East.  But most importantly, their new preseason home is our favorite spring training destination.  I think I need to get a hat.

--Currently in the middle of a massive fantasy draft.  It's done through Fangraphs, which has a new fantasy game this year, and luckily there is a pause function.  League has 12 teams and 40 roster spots per team, which if you're counting at home, is a lot of draft.  Hopefully we can get that done on Sunday.  I'm enjoying living out my fantasy of being a GM.

--As awesome as it is that baseball games are being played, I have a hard time getting caught up in spring stats because it's such a small sample size.  And players are facing guys who won't be in the major leagues much of the time.  I know this isn't a new concept.  I'll be glad when I'm down there watching games in person.

--If you haven't caught on yet, I'll be heading to Sarasota, Florida in a week to take in some sun, beach, beer, and baseball.  The plan is to attend at least one Orioles game, a Pirates game, and a Phillies game cuz they have a nice new stadium and amazing cheesesteaks.  As you might imagine, I'm very excited.

That's all for now.  Time to get ready for the Cincy/ND game.

The Reds Performance in 2011

One of the best and worst parts of the month and a half leading up to the regular season is the endless stream of preseason outlooks and predictions.  I mean, everyone has to do it, but so many of them aren't worth reading and most of the time we will inevitably (1) forget they even existed once the season starts, or (2) realize how silly it is to try and predict the goings on of a baseball season.

However, one series that certainly IS worth reading is this 30-part Question of the Day bit that Rob Neyer is doing over at SB Nation.  Today he addresses the Reds, though it's funny because the actual question doesn't seem to have much to do with the majority of the post, but of course that doesn't really matter.*

*The question is about baseball fans in Ohio and he points out that both the Reds and Indians have had successful seasons recently but didn't seem to perform as well in attendance as one would have expected.

Neyer brings up many points that have been discussed over at Redleg Nation and have been thought by me at some time or another (and who knows, maybe I even wrote them down in previous posts... I don't really remember).  He basically covers the two key issues...

The Reds are highly unlikely to lead the league in scoring again. Among the 13 Reds who totaled at least 100 plate appearances, Orlando Cabrera was the only one who had a bad year at the plate. Everyone else was either adequate, good, or great. Cincinnati's catchers, mostly Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan ranked second in the league in RBI, third in OPS. Scott Rolen stayed reasonably healthy and added to his Hall of Fame resume. Joey Votto, you know about.


This should still be a good hitting team. But perhaps not a great one.

...

I haven't looked at the underlying projections, but I will guess the Reds project to 84 wins because their hitting is expected to regress and their pitching isn't expected to improve at all.


I'm not going to argue with PECOTA. I don't know which of these fellows will be a Cy Young candidate, either. And if the Reds can't figure out an answer, it might be a long season.

So to recap, (1) we can't count on the Reds offense performing as well as it did last year, and (2) the Reds have a deep rotation with a handful of middle of the rotation guys but no ace, yet.*

*I of course recommend reading the whole thing.  One commenter - I think he writes for the Red Reporter - does point out that PECOTA is by far the most pessimistic projection for the Reds in particular.

And that's basically it.  Listen, the Reds have a good team, and I think it's pretty cool that we're arguing to what degree the Reds will be above .500 instead of is this the year they finally have a winning record.  It's a nice discussion to have.

But the bottom line is, the Reds need an ace, and yes they have a very deep staff, but they are gambling that one will emerge internally.  And they were content to stand pat on offense with no significant upgrades at the two opportunity positions.

All the forecasts are really saying the same thing, with different levels of optimism.  My prediction?  I'm excited for the year, I love this Reds team, and it should be a great race in the Central.

The Oscars

Dammit.  Ok, from here on out, I promise to stop making promises about the next time I'm going post.  After all, actions speak louder than words.

There are a couple things rolling around in the ol' noggin that will likely inspire a random smattering of words, and I'll start with the Oscars, though this is sure to get lost among all the posts submitted by everyone and his/her brother about last night's Oscars.

For me this year was a bit different.  For (1) I've actually seen several of the films nominated for best picture.  And (2), I made a concerted effort to watch the show.  Well actually it wasn't necessarily my concerted effort... my girlfriend's uncle hosted a gathering, which was a lot of fun.

Three of the four I've seen (The Social Network, Black Swan, The King's Speech) I LOVED.  The fourth, Inception, was fine, but with all the pre-release hype I just didn't find myself blown away.  I remember telling Zach that it just tied up too nicely for me.  Anyway, the effects were still great so I have no qualms with it winning those types of awards.

Those first three though.  Man, I think I could watch them again and again and again.  I don't remember the last time I watched multiple movies that came out within a relatively short amount of time that I enjoyed that much.  The 8 or so minutes of the actual King's speech were gripping, and I think it was pretty telling that during the introduction to the best picture category it was used as a back drop.  Obviously there are six movies I didn't see, but I must say I think the right picture won.

Though I must say, at the last minute I found myself rooting for The Social Network.  It was just such an incredible movie that kind of came out of nowhere.  A movie about facebook winning best picture?  How ludicrous!  But it was not unworthy.  The writing is great, the story is great (even if most of it isn't true and was merely played up for Hollywood), and Jesse Eisenberg is quickly becoming one of my favorite people to watch.  I don't buy many movies but I'm pretty certain this one will be gracing my bookshelf.

I still want to see The Kids Are Alright and Toy Story 3.  Erin said Winter's Bone and The Fighter were good, but I don't expect to be seeking those out any time soon.  And I'm not watching James Franco cut his own arm off. 

Speaking of, did he do anything last night?  His biggest contribution seemed to be standing next to a pretty girl while trying not to look high as a kite.  I wonder if while the two of them were rehearsing for this thing it became painfully clear that Anne Hathaway would be carrying the show.  I mean that's what happened, right?  As if she needed another marketable skill.

Reds 2011 Projections (Offense/Defense)

Welcome.  A week later I am getting to what I promised: Reds 2011 Projections.

First, some background.  As I mentioned before, FanGraphs is an awesome website.  One of its particularly awesome features that I am utilizing in this post is fan generated player projections.  Here's how it works...

(1) Select a number of dropdowns
(2) Submit

It's that simple.  Let's take a look at an example (click on the image for a larger view):

Here we have Joey Votto, probably the funnest player for Reds fans to project.  You can see my entries above.  A few notes...

1. Most entries are actually ranges.  This certainly allows for some wiggle room, and makes it more feasible that casual fans are predicting very specific stats for players they may or may not know very well.
2. FanGraphs gives you the player's stats for the last several years, making it much easier to have an entry for say, Strikeout %, something no fan keeps track of (though of course our idea of how high or low it should be is influenced by what we see from the player with our eyes).
3. This is still an inexact science.  They ask for batting order, which for Votto is easy, but what about Brandon Phillips.  Will he bat 2nd most often, or 6th?  Well, it's impossible to know, so you make your best guess and go with it.

With all that being said, without further ado, let's take a look at my 2011 offensive projections (ordered by WAR, descending)...

Lots of things going on here.  First off, it's interesting seeing where everyone lands from a traditional stat perspective.  From a Wins Above Replacement standpoint there are some things to note as well.  Let's go through them (I'm in a bullet sort of mood for this post, apparently)...

• Not surprisingly, Votto ends up with the most WAR, and I think his numbers look reasonable, to me.  I have his HR total going down slightly, just because I don't see Votto as a pure power hitter, and in general, his 2010 season was so sensational that I think some regression to the mean is in order.  I do think he can sustain an OBP at or above .400.

• Stubbs nets as many WAR as Bruce, likely because of his baserunning.  Again, this is based on a series of guesses (made by me) and assumptions (made by FanGraphs).  If you ask me straight up, whose OBP will be higher in 2011, Stubbs or Bruce, I would say Bruce.  But I have looked over my entries several times and both look reasonable to me for AB, Walk %, etc, and the results are what they are.
  
  That being said, these are two young players that I think have as much uncertainty surrounding them as any Red in the lineup.  Any Reds fan knows what Bruce is capable of, but when it's coming and to what degree is anyone's guess.  Bruce could hit 40 homeruns next year.  He could hit .300.  But I'm not basing my projections on that possibility.  Stubbs also has great potential.  If he cuts down the strikeouts a bit and keeps the power and speed, watch out.

• There's an Oakland A's blog called Baseballin' On A Budget that did a similar exercise in December.  He gives a few caveats that also apply here.  One, as I said before, is that it's really hard to predict this stuff, so for the most part I tried to stay fairly conservative.  Two is that it becomes difficult to get the total number of ABs and innings pitched exactly correct.  With my current results, I have over 5300 ABs for the season... probably a little high.  Innings-wise I'm just over 1300, which is probably a little low.  OK, because I'm sure there are several fringe guys that will end up pitching a handful of innings that I didn't capture here because they're in AAA or something of the sort (and will likely be at or around replacement level).

I'll let you gander at the rest.  There's only so much to pre-address and to be honest I started this post last night and mostly just want to get it out there.

Bottom line?  According to my entries, the Reds offense (and defense) figures to produce 26.8 WAR in 2011.  A decent figure.  Just to give you an idea, the 2010 offense (and defense) produced 33.3 WAR, best in baseball (the Reds actually underperformed their WAR in 2010, but that's a topic for another post).  This included well over 4 wins that can be attributed to the defense, which was 4th best in baseball.  My projections were conservative on defense because the trustworthiness of such metrics are still up for debate, so there is definitely potential for the Reds to outperform my projections in that area.

Since this post got be pretty long (and time consuming), I've decided to separate the pitching projections into another post.  Expect that out in the near future, where I will also talk about the projected WAR for the entire team and what it means as far as expected win total.  For now, take some time to digest, go visit fangraphs.com, and feel free to comment with any thoughts or suggestions you may have.