If you're here, thanks for visiting! This used to be where I posted thoughts about the Reds and other related (and sometimes unrelated) topics. However, in mid-December I teamed up with long-time friend Zach Sanderson to create Big Red Smokey, a new and improved Reds-themed blog. In this new space Zach and I hope to add new and better content more frequently, with added control over the site in general, since it's his personal domain.
So check it out, and thanks again!
-Aaron
Friday, January 27, 2012
Monday, December 12, 2011
Matt Moore and Contracts
Despite its title, this post was actually inspired by Trevor Cahill. I was reading Keith Law's take on the Cahill/Parker trade (he doesn't think the A's got enough) and Cahill's contract caught my eye. I hadn't realized he was signed through 2015 at a very reasonable price, with club options through 2017 (which includes very reasonable buyouts, I might add). In the last 2 years of the deal, Cahill will be making 7.5 and 12 million dollors (how much are the Reds giving Bronson Arroyo?) and as Law points out, Cahill has the potential to be more that just a middle of the rotation guy. In his age 22 and 23 seasons he's turned in 2.2 and 2.5 WAR (fangraphs).
But this isn't necessarily about Cahill. It's about his team friendly contract. This also got me to thinking about Matt Moore, who earlier this week may have set a new standard for team friendly contracts. His 5 year, $14M signing may make him the most valuable trade chip in baseball (again, fangraphs). And those numbers don't even include his 3 years of club options. See the fangraphs article for more details. This isn't the first time the Rays have done this. If Moore's contract is the most team friendly in baseball, it's only slightly more so than teammate Evan Longoria's. This isn't news, but when all is said and done the Rays have the potential to have enjoyed 9 years of Longoria's services at severely below market cost.
Point is, teams are doing this, and the Reds need to do this. They already have, somewhat, with Jay Bruce, but compare these contracts:
Bruce: 6 years, $51 million, 1 club option, 8.0 career WAR before signing
Cueto: 4 years, $27 million, 1 club option, 5.4 career WAR before signing
Cahill: 5 years, $30.5 million, 2 club options, 2.8 career WAR before signing
Longoria: 6 years, $17.5 million, 3 club options, 20 major league at bats before signing
Moore: 5 years $14 million, 3 club options, 19 major league innings before signing
The differences here are obvious. Just one man's opinion, but I think the Reds are waiting too long. The Rays are pushing the envelope, and when you're in the AL East with their payroll, you need to. The risk the team is taking on is nothing compared to the potential reward. Obviously Longoria has worked out. Remember, Bruce and Longoria were fighting it out for the title of #1 prospect just a few summers ago. The Reds could have put themselves in the same position, and though Longoria has reached super-stardom, he is getting a third as much guaranteed money as Bruce.
What about Mike Leake? Straight out of college he has produced 2.5 WAR in his two seasons with the Reds, and his style has drawn comparisons to Greg Maddux (though obviously not quite at the same level). While not yet a star, he'll be just 24 next year and most consider him the second most reliable starter the Reds have (hopefully third most by the end of this offseason). Are the Reds waiting for his breakout year to sign him to a long term deal? Why not do it now for a fraction of the cost? I am literally just pulling numbers out of thin air here, but don't you think they could sign him to a Matt Moore type deal but with less money? Think of how little risk there is there with massive upside. Four years $10 million with a couple club options?
It's time for the Reds to be proactive and realize that teams with their payroll need to sign their promising young players BEFORE the price gets to high.
But this isn't necessarily about Cahill. It's about his team friendly contract. This also got me to thinking about Matt Moore, who earlier this week may have set a new standard for team friendly contracts. His 5 year, $14M signing may make him the most valuable trade chip in baseball (again, fangraphs). And those numbers don't even include his 3 years of club options. See the fangraphs article for more details. This isn't the first time the Rays have done this. If Moore's contract is the most team friendly in baseball, it's only slightly more so than teammate Evan Longoria's. This isn't news, but when all is said and done the Rays have the potential to have enjoyed 9 years of Longoria's services at severely below market cost.
Point is, teams are doing this, and the Reds need to do this. They already have, somewhat, with Jay Bruce, but compare these contracts:
Bruce: 6 years, $51 million, 1 club option, 8.0 career WAR before signing
Cueto: 4 years, $27 million, 1 club option, 5.4 career WAR before signing
Cahill: 5 years, $30.5 million, 2 club options, 2.8 career WAR before signing
Longoria: 6 years, $17.5 million, 3 club options, 20 major league at bats before signing
Moore: 5 years $14 million, 3 club options, 19 major league innings before signing
The differences here are obvious. Just one man's opinion, but I think the Reds are waiting too long. The Rays are pushing the envelope, and when you're in the AL East with their payroll, you need to. The risk the team is taking on is nothing compared to the potential reward. Obviously Longoria has worked out. Remember, Bruce and Longoria were fighting it out for the title of #1 prospect just a few summers ago. The Reds could have put themselves in the same position, and though Longoria has reached super-stardom, he is getting a third as much guaranteed money as Bruce.
What about Mike Leake? Straight out of college he has produced 2.5 WAR in his two seasons with the Reds, and his style has drawn comparisons to Greg Maddux (though obviously not quite at the same level). While not yet a star, he'll be just 24 next year and most consider him the second most reliable starter the Reds have (hopefully third most by the end of this offseason). Are the Reds waiting for his breakout year to sign him to a long term deal? Why not do it now for a fraction of the cost? I am literally just pulling numbers out of thin air here, but don't you think they could sign him to a Matt Moore type deal but with less money? Think of how little risk there is there with massive upside. Four years $10 million with a couple club options?
It's time for the Reds to be proactive and realize that teams with their payroll need to sign their promising young players BEFORE the price gets to high.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Pujols (6 Thoughts)
After a night's sleep and a little more perspective, here's what I think:
1. Albert Pujols is a grown man with remarkable talents and is entitled to apply for a job wherever he chooses. Maybe it was money. Maybe it was location. Maybe he just felt like it.
2. Anyone demonizing him for taking more money needs to chill. Who here, when faced with the question: "Would you like to do the same job for less money?" would answer yes? Those attacking him for his supposed beliefs... you think more money in his pockets doesn't mean more money for his charities, organizations, churches, etc?
3. If it was in fact a higher power that led to this decision, thank you God for the mercy you have shown toward the other teams in the NL Central.
4. Despite my comments thus far, all along I thought it would be a sad day when Albert Pujols was no longer a Cardinal. I say this not for the sake of the Cardinals, but for the sake of baseball and its fans. Though it wasn't always pretty toward the end (from a business standpoint), Barry Larkin was a Red for his entire career. I know how it would have felt if he had played for the Mets, even during his twilight years. There is something about a player playing with one team and adds to the mystique of it all. And yesterday, that was lost. I'm not naive regarding the state of the game, or bitter about what free agency has done, but I still think it's worth celebrating when all of that fails to tear down the relationship between player and team.
5. It's still a business, and congrats to the Angels. Certain aspects of baseball economics are a mystery to me, but I guess the Angels have a lot of money. Something tells me, though, they'll come to regret this. It's funny because it seems so ludicrous when a team is paying a 38-year-old three or four times what he's worth, but we still can't help ourselves. I guess if they win a championship in the next several years it'll be worth it.
6. Thanks Albert for casting a dark cloud over what was a miracle season for the team I hate most. Things feel a little more right.
1. Albert Pujols is a grown man with remarkable talents and is entitled to apply for a job wherever he chooses. Maybe it was money. Maybe it was location. Maybe he just felt like it.
2. Anyone demonizing him for taking more money needs to chill. Who here, when faced with the question: "Would you like to do the same job for less money?" would answer yes? Those attacking him for his supposed beliefs... you think more money in his pockets doesn't mean more money for his charities, organizations, churches, etc?
3. If it was in fact a higher power that led to this decision, thank you God for the mercy you have shown toward the other teams in the NL Central.
4. Despite my comments thus far, all along I thought it would be a sad day when Albert Pujols was no longer a Cardinal. I say this not for the sake of the Cardinals, but for the sake of baseball and its fans. Though it wasn't always pretty toward the end (from a business standpoint), Barry Larkin was a Red for his entire career. I know how it would have felt if he had played for the Mets, even during his twilight years. There is something about a player playing with one team and adds to the mystique of it all. And yesterday, that was lost. I'm not naive regarding the state of the game, or bitter about what free agency has done, but I still think it's worth celebrating when all of that fails to tear down the relationship between player and team.
5. It's still a business, and congrats to the Angels. Certain aspects of baseball economics are a mystery to me, but I guess the Angels have a lot of money. Something tells me, though, they'll come to regret this. It's funny because it seems so ludicrous when a team is paying a 38-year-old three or four times what he's worth, but we still can't help ourselves. I guess if they win a championship in the next several years it'll be worth it.
6. Thanks Albert for casting a dark cloud over what was a miracle season for the team I hate most. Things feel a little more right.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Is This Thing On?
Time to warm up the engines again. The moment has come to end another dry spell.* That's why I'm starting slow (with a post that will probably have a longer asterisk than actual content). MLB's Fan Cave has completed its first year and is currently open for applications for 2012. Apparently the format will be slightly different as well. They seem to be planning to accept a handful of applicants and implement a reality show format where contestants get voted off every so often. Honestly though I'm not concerning myself too much with those details... I like to be surprised. Point is, there's a higher chance of being selected.
*As usual I've done some soul searching to determine the cause of the lastest one, and not surprisingly, many of the usual suspects have emerged: (1) Sadly, when your team is disappointing, there is less motivation to write about them, or the sport in general. However, I will say that, as was noted over at Redleg Nation, this team wasn't just disappointing. They didn't just finish below .500 like so many Reds teams of the last decade. They severely underachieved, and at no point looked like they would be any threat to the central division title. They looked lifeless and disinterested, and digging deeper into that just seemed cruel and unusual.
(2) I find that it's much easier for me to write during the offseason than during the season. I think this is because not as much is happening in the offseason. The internets are less saturated (are there degrees of saturation?). Additionally, something else I noticed more than ever this season... I found it increasingly difficult to do analysis on a day to day basis because one day of baseball is like the blink of an eye. How different, really, is one from the next. Alternatively, analyzing an entire season is where real trends emerge. It allows us to evaluate our teams and make decisions. If you'll notice, it's really incredible how much perceptions can change from May to September. Personally, I like to just watch and enjoy the games, rather than try and break down every minutia.
And (3), this was really only an issue in September and October, but who knew the Bengals would be relevant? I certainly didn't. After last year I almost thought my interest in the NFL would disappear entirely. The Bengals were dreadful, and I was pretty sick of all the concussions and violence and "it's football, be a man" talk that was going on. Turns out my football convictions aren't very strong, and rooting for a team without T.Ocho and with two standout rookies is unexpectedly refreshing.
Oh, and there's a (4)... I've been attending to some family stuff since July and really, finding free time to write about baseball was extremely difficult.
Anyway, as Poz would say, sorry, I'm back. And so, consider this the start of a new non-dry spell, with posts upcoming about whatever I feel like writing. Until next time, go Reds. Do something. Please.
*As usual I've done some soul searching to determine the cause of the lastest one, and not surprisingly, many of the usual suspects have emerged: (1) Sadly, when your team is disappointing, there is less motivation to write about them, or the sport in general. However, I will say that, as was noted over at Redleg Nation, this team wasn't just disappointing. They didn't just finish below .500 like so many Reds teams of the last decade. They severely underachieved, and at no point looked like they would be any threat to the central division title. They looked lifeless and disinterested, and digging deeper into that just seemed cruel and unusual.
(2) I find that it's much easier for me to write during the offseason than during the season. I think this is because not as much is happening in the offseason. The internets are less saturated (are there degrees of saturation?). Additionally, something else I noticed more than ever this season... I found it increasingly difficult to do analysis on a day to day basis because one day of baseball is like the blink of an eye. How different, really, is one from the next. Alternatively, analyzing an entire season is where real trends emerge. It allows us to evaluate our teams and make decisions. If you'll notice, it's really incredible how much perceptions can change from May to September. Personally, I like to just watch and enjoy the games, rather than try and break down every minutia.
And (3), this was really only an issue in September and October, but who knew the Bengals would be relevant? I certainly didn't. After last year I almost thought my interest in the NFL would disappear entirely. The Bengals were dreadful, and I was pretty sick of all the concussions and violence and "it's football, be a man" talk that was going on. Turns out my football convictions aren't very strong, and rooting for a team without T.Ocho and with two standout rookies is unexpectedly refreshing.
Oh, and there's a (4)... I've been attending to some family stuff since July and really, finding free time to write about baseball was extremely difficult.
Anyway, as Poz would say, sorry, I'm back. And so, consider this the start of a new non-dry spell, with posts upcoming about whatever I feel like writing. Until next time, go Reds. Do something. Please.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Division Run Down: NL East
Getting my first real taste of live preseason baseball right now. Yeah, it's the Yankees and Red Sox and we'll probably see them on national tv another couple hundred times this year, but it's still pretty great. I approve of ESPN's new Sunday Night Baseball crew.
Is it just me or does Spring Training just feel more right in Florida. I need those palm trees. Saturday can't come soon enough.
So, just to remind my reader out there (no, that wasn't a typo), I've been running down the 2011 baseball season division by division. Rather than go with straight projections I've tried to give it a little more character by simply naming the favorite and the anti-favorite, and then labeling teams based on my inclination to root for them. And remember, my thoughts and feelings are subject to change based on whatever's convenient at the time.
Friday through Sunday we ran through the American League (you know, cuz we don't want anyone feeling left out). On to the National League East...
The Favorite: Philadelphia Phillies
Not exciting, I know. I really wanted to knock the Phillies off their perch (not that I'm bitter or anything), but I simply can't justify it. Chase Utley's knee is a major question mark though, and on top of that, I just can't imagine their four aces working out exactly as planned. At least one will have a down year, or will get hurt, or something, and their aging offense won't be enough to pick up the slack. And I like the Braves (more on them later), but for now I gotta go by the book.
The Neglected: Washington Nationals
Again, the status quo. What were they doing this offseason exactly? Did they think they were a few expensive pieces away from contending? Well with that rotation you need a little more than Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche. Ryan Zimmerman is probably the most underrated player in the NL, and I love the guy, but he needs help, and he doesn't have it. Jordan Zimmermann is an interesting guy to watch, and I honestly think he and Gorzelanny might prove to be their two best starters. The Nats are probably a few years away, IF Strasburg has a successful recovery and Harper does what he's supposed to, but 2011's not their year.
Most Likable Team: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are often listed near the top in organizational prospect lists (no one's passing the Royals or Rays) and that makes them one of the more exciting teams to watch. Joining Heyward among this year's starters is first baseman Freddie Freeman, and likely accompanying Tommy Hanson in the rotation is youngster Mike Minor. Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters bring a ton of youth and power to the backend of the bullpen, and who isn't rooting for Chipper Jones at this point in his career (well, maybe a lot of people, I don't really know... but I like him). And Brian McCann is quietly having a superb start to his still young career. Throw in a couple likable guys like Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson at the front of the rotation and this is a no brainer.
Least Likable Team: New York Mets
They spend like they have the money (which they do) and know what they're doing (not so much). This team is so sad that I mostly just feel bad for Mets fans. There's been enough drama and disappointment over the last few years that I'm just going to opt for brevity on this one, for all our sakes.
Potential story line:
I swear I'm not doing this on purpose, but I gotta go with the team I've yet to mention. Since their existance I've found the Florida Marlins to be possibly the most facinating team in baseball. They've won two World Series in less than 20 years and seem to find a way to contend no matter how many stars they trade away or how many young, unproven players they trot out there. And it looks like they're in position to do it yet again. They have five very viable young starters, including a bona fide Cy Young candidate in Josh Johnson, potential stars Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton man the outfield, Gabby Sanchez had a very strong rookie campaign, and of course their shortstop is pretty good too. One thing I find borderline laughable... is that Wes Helms penciled in at third? Regardless, I won't be surprised when the Marlins are nipping at the heels of the Phillies and Braves come August.
Overall Results: (slightly adjusted...)
Phillies 90
Braves 89 (+1)
Marlins 83
Mets 75
Nationals 70 (+1)
Is it just me or does Spring Training just feel more right in Florida. I need those palm trees. Saturday can't come soon enough.
So, just to remind my reader out there (no, that wasn't a typo), I've been running down the 2011 baseball season division by division. Rather than go with straight projections I've tried to give it a little more character by simply naming the favorite and the anti-favorite, and then labeling teams based on my inclination to root for them. And remember, my thoughts and feelings are subject to change based on whatever's convenient at the time.
Friday through Sunday we ran through the American League (you know, cuz we don't want anyone feeling left out). On to the National League East...
The Favorite: Philadelphia Phillies
Not exciting, I know. I really wanted to knock the Phillies off their perch (not that I'm bitter or anything), but I simply can't justify it. Chase Utley's knee is a major question mark though, and on top of that, I just can't imagine their four aces working out exactly as planned. At least one will have a down year, or will get hurt, or something, and their aging offense won't be enough to pick up the slack. And I like the Braves (more on them later), but for now I gotta go by the book.
The Neglected: Washington Nationals
Again, the status quo. What were they doing this offseason exactly? Did they think they were a few expensive pieces away from contending? Well with that rotation you need a little more than Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche. Ryan Zimmerman is probably the most underrated player in the NL, and I love the guy, but he needs help, and he doesn't have it. Jordan Zimmermann is an interesting guy to watch, and I honestly think he and Gorzelanny might prove to be their two best starters. The Nats are probably a few years away, IF Strasburg has a successful recovery and Harper does what he's supposed to, but 2011's not their year.
Most Likable Team: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are often listed near the top in organizational prospect lists (no one's passing the Royals or Rays) and that makes them one of the more exciting teams to watch. Joining Heyward among this year's starters is first baseman Freddie Freeman, and likely accompanying Tommy Hanson in the rotation is youngster Mike Minor. Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters bring a ton of youth and power to the backend of the bullpen, and who isn't rooting for Chipper Jones at this point in his career (well, maybe a lot of people, I don't really know... but I like him). And Brian McCann is quietly having a superb start to his still young career. Throw in a couple likable guys like Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson at the front of the rotation and this is a no brainer.
Least Likable Team: New York Mets
They spend like they have the money (which they do) and know what they're doing (not so much). This team is so sad that I mostly just feel bad for Mets fans. There's been enough drama and disappointment over the last few years that I'm just going to opt for brevity on this one, for all our sakes.
Potential story line:
I swear I'm not doing this on purpose, but I gotta go with the team I've yet to mention. Since their existance I've found the Florida Marlins to be possibly the most facinating team in baseball. They've won two World Series in less than 20 years and seem to find a way to contend no matter how many stars they trade away or how many young, unproven players they trot out there. And it looks like they're in position to do it yet again. They have five very viable young starters, including a bona fide Cy Young candidate in Josh Johnson, potential stars Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton man the outfield, Gabby Sanchez had a very strong rookie campaign, and of course their shortstop is pretty good too. One thing I find borderline laughable... is that Wes Helms penciled in at third? Regardless, I won't be surprised when the Marlins are nipping at the heels of the Phillies and Braves come August.
Overall Results: (slightly adjusted...)
Phillies 90
Braves 89 (+1)
Marlins 83
Mets 75
Nationals 70 (+1)
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Division Run Down: AL West
Something about a four team division makes it seem like a crap shoot every year. Though this time I think there's a particular order popping up more often than not. But of course, that usually means nothing...
The Favorite: Texas Rangers
They won the division comfortably last year, made the World Series, and though they lost their ace, the Rangers added free agent Adrian Beltre, they have the reigning American League MVP, and they will trot out a couple young starters showing promise, most notably Derek Holland. They aren't without questions: Can Josh Hamilton say healthy, will Colby Lewis duplicate his 2010, and of course, what role will Neftali Feliz ultimately settle into? Still, no other team in the West is in position to pass the Rangers.
The Neglected: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners lost 100 games last season for the second time in three years. Much has been said about the unlikelihood of everyone on the team playing as poorly as they did, which should put them in line for an increased win total without changing much. That being said, it's not hard to go up from 61, and they're still putting a lot of faith in youngsters Saunders and Smoak, and have very little starting pitching depth behind Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez. It's unlikely Seattle sniffs the .500 mark this year.
Most Likable Team: Oakland Athletics
It's funny, throughout the 90's the A's were unquestionably my least favorite team in baseball. As a young, impressionable baseball fan I was left with a bad taste in my mouth when the Reds weren't given much of a chance going in the 1990 World Series. That feeling lingered as players like McGwire, Canseco, Henderson, and Stewart just struck me as unlikable.
All that changed at the turn of the century when the A's were the focus of a new kind of baseball and the subject of some book that a bunch of people read. Now the A's play the role of perpetual underdog as they try to win with less, endlessly searching for baseball market inefficiencies. A stash of young, promising starters and a handful of slick fielding batsmen with some power peppered in here and there gives this team just enough to be interesting.
Least Likable Team: Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim?)
Having only four teams limits our choices here (though I never really made it a rule that I wouldn't select a team for more than one category, it just kind of worked out that way so far). But I think the Angels fit the bill here. Acquiring Vernon Wells this offseason probably qualifies them immediately (I have nothing against Wells personally, it's just clearly an unlikable move). Add in their silly name changes and I think it's an open and shut case.
Potential story line:
Is Billy Beane back? I admittedly haven't had much of a chance to keep up with this story, but wasn't there talk of Beane being more interested in soccer than baseball last year? Add in the fact that the A's haven't finished above .500 since 2006 and to most people Moneyball is a distant memory (or something to be proven ineffective). If the A's young pitchers keep improving and the offense produces just enough to compliment their above average run prevention, I personally would like to see the Moneyball naysayers put back in their place just a bit (or at least we can try and convince them that they just don't understand what they're talking about, but that seems unlikely).
Overall Result: (slightly adjusted...)
Rangers 87 (+1)
Athletics 83
Angels 79 (+1)
Mariners 73
The Favorite: Texas Rangers
They won the division comfortably last year, made the World Series, and though they lost their ace, the Rangers added free agent Adrian Beltre, they have the reigning American League MVP, and they will trot out a couple young starters showing promise, most notably Derek Holland. They aren't without questions: Can Josh Hamilton say healthy, will Colby Lewis duplicate his 2010, and of course, what role will Neftali Feliz ultimately settle into? Still, no other team in the West is in position to pass the Rangers.
The Neglected: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners lost 100 games last season for the second time in three years. Much has been said about the unlikelihood of everyone on the team playing as poorly as they did, which should put them in line for an increased win total without changing much. That being said, it's not hard to go up from 61, and they're still putting a lot of faith in youngsters Saunders and Smoak, and have very little starting pitching depth behind Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez. It's unlikely Seattle sniffs the .500 mark this year.
Most Likable Team: Oakland Athletics
It's funny, throughout the 90's the A's were unquestionably my least favorite team in baseball. As a young, impressionable baseball fan I was left with a bad taste in my mouth when the Reds weren't given much of a chance going in the 1990 World Series. That feeling lingered as players like McGwire, Canseco, Henderson, and Stewart just struck me as unlikable.
All that changed at the turn of the century when the A's were the focus of a new kind of baseball and the subject of some book that a bunch of people read. Now the A's play the role of perpetual underdog as they try to win with less, endlessly searching for baseball market inefficiencies. A stash of young, promising starters and a handful of slick fielding batsmen with some power peppered in here and there gives this team just enough to be interesting.
Least Likable Team: Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim?)
Having only four teams limits our choices here (though I never really made it a rule that I wouldn't select a team for more than one category, it just kind of worked out that way so far). But I think the Angels fit the bill here. Acquiring Vernon Wells this offseason probably qualifies them immediately (I have nothing against Wells personally, it's just clearly an unlikable move). Add in their silly name changes and I think it's an open and shut case.
Potential story line:
Is Billy Beane back? I admittedly haven't had much of a chance to keep up with this story, but wasn't there talk of Beane being more interested in soccer than baseball last year? Add in the fact that the A's haven't finished above .500 since 2006 and to most people Moneyball is a distant memory (or something to be proven ineffective). If the A's young pitchers keep improving and the offense produces just enough to compliment their above average run prevention, I personally would like to see the Moneyball naysayers put back in their place just a bit (or at least we can try and convince them that they just don't understand what they're talking about, but that seems unlikely).
Overall Result: (slightly adjusted...)
Rangers 87 (+1)
Athletics 83
Angels 79 (+1)
Mariners 73
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Division Run Down: AL Central
Today we move westerly in the American League and take on the Central, where it appears we'll have three teams battling it out for most of the season...
The Favorite: Minnesota Twins
I don't know if you can officially call any of the Twins, White Sox, or Tigers the "favorite", but the way I see it, this team has finished first the past three years (though technically they were tied with the White Sox in 2008 and lost the one game playoff), and are the favorites until someone else proves otherwise. After eight months Justin Morneau has finally seen live big league action, and assuming he can make a full recovery, I think you have to project this team slightly ahead of it's competitors. Remember, they did it last year without any help from Joe Nathan and only half a year from Morneau.
The Neglected: Kansas City Royals
The Royals have finished 4th or 5th in the AL Central for seven straight years. They just traded away their ace. They signed Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera in the offseason. Recipe for a turnaround? No. But everyone knows what the Royals are playing for, and that's 2013 and beyond. As for 2011, fans will have to be content with battling for 4th place and having a Yuni-less infield.
Most Likable Team: Chicago White Sox
The Twins are very likable. Small market. Down-to-earth face of the franchise catcher. But I'm going with the White Sox here because they hit a lot of homeruns, and I think Adam Dunn and Mark Buehrle are two of the more interesting guys in baseball. Having seen a lot of Adam Dunn in Cincinnati, he really is one of the funniest players I've heard talk. And seriously, doesn't Buehrle seem to do something awesome and bad ass pretty much every year (see here for proof). Besides all that, I live in Chicago, and it's always good to support the hometown team (even if I don't live on the south side).
Least Likable Team: Cleveland Indians
This is probably more of a personal thing rather than a widespread sentiment. They just seem like a team of no consequence that really isn't doing much of anything. And it makes me sad. I mean, what happened to Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner and Matt LaPorta and Fausto Carmona (speaking of, who on earth assembled that rotation). And I feel bad for Shin-Soo Choo because he really is one of the ten best outfielders in baseball and doesn't get much credit for it. Hard to say when they'll become relevant again.
Potential story line:
The easy answer here is Miguel Cabrera, and it's my blog so I'm going with the easy answer. I hope the guy can get back on track, because he is good at hitting a baseball, and it'd be a shame, both for him and for us, if that talent was wasted in any way.
Overall Result:
Twins 87
White Sox 85
Tigers 82
Indians 69
Royals 67
The Favorite: Minnesota Twins
I don't know if you can officially call any of the Twins, White Sox, or Tigers the "favorite", but the way I see it, this team has finished first the past three years (though technically they were tied with the White Sox in 2008 and lost the one game playoff), and are the favorites until someone else proves otherwise. After eight months Justin Morneau has finally seen live big league action, and assuming he can make a full recovery, I think you have to project this team slightly ahead of it's competitors. Remember, they did it last year without any help from Joe Nathan and only half a year from Morneau.
The Neglected: Kansas City Royals
The Royals have finished 4th or 5th in the AL Central for seven straight years. They just traded away their ace. They signed Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera in the offseason. Recipe for a turnaround? No. But everyone knows what the Royals are playing for, and that's 2013 and beyond. As for 2011, fans will have to be content with battling for 4th place and having a Yuni-less infield.
Most Likable Team: Chicago White Sox
The Twins are very likable. Small market. Down-to-earth face of the franchise catcher. But I'm going with the White Sox here because they hit a lot of homeruns, and I think Adam Dunn and Mark Buehrle are two of the more interesting guys in baseball. Having seen a lot of Adam Dunn in Cincinnati, he really is one of the funniest players I've heard talk. And seriously, doesn't Buehrle seem to do something awesome and bad ass pretty much every year (see here for proof). Besides all that, I live in Chicago, and it's always good to support the hometown team (even if I don't live on the south side).
Least Likable Team: Cleveland Indians
This is probably more of a personal thing rather than a widespread sentiment. They just seem like a team of no consequence that really isn't doing much of anything. And it makes me sad. I mean, what happened to Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner and Matt LaPorta and Fausto Carmona (speaking of, who on earth assembled that rotation). And I feel bad for Shin-Soo Choo because he really is one of the ten best outfielders in baseball and doesn't get much credit for it. Hard to say when they'll become relevant again.
Potential story line:
The easy answer here is Miguel Cabrera, and it's my blog so I'm going with the easy answer. I hope the guy can get back on track, because he is good at hitting a baseball, and it'd be a shame, both for him and for us, if that talent was wasted in any way.
Overall Result:
Twins 87
White Sox 85
Tigers 82
Indians 69
Royals 67
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