Despite its title, this post was actually inspired by Trevor Cahill. I was reading Keith Law's take on the Cahill/Parker trade (he doesn't think the A's got enough) and Cahill's contract caught my eye. I hadn't realized he was signed through 2015 at a very reasonable price, with club options through 2017 (which includes very reasonable buyouts, I might add). In the last 2 years of the deal, Cahill will be making 7.5 and 12 million dollors (how much are the Reds giving Bronson Arroyo?) and as Law points out, Cahill has the potential to be more that just a middle of the rotation guy. In his age 22 and 23 seasons he's turned in 2.2 and 2.5 WAR (fangraphs).
But this isn't necessarily about Cahill. It's about his team friendly contract. This also got me to thinking about Matt Moore, who earlier this week may have set a new standard for team friendly contracts. His 5 year, $14M signing may make him the most valuable trade chip in baseball (again, fangraphs). And those numbers don't even include his 3 years of club options. See the fangraphs article for more details. This isn't the first time the Rays have done this. If Moore's contract is the most team friendly in baseball, it's only slightly more so than teammate Evan Longoria's. This isn't news, but when all is said and done the Rays have the potential to have enjoyed 9 years of Longoria's services at severely below market cost.
Point is, teams are doing this, and the Reds need to do this. They already have, somewhat, with Jay Bruce, but compare these contracts:
Bruce: 6 years, $51 million, 1 club option, 8.0 career WAR before signing
Cueto: 4 years, $27 million, 1 club option, 5.4 career WAR before signing
Cahill: 5 years, $30.5 million, 2 club options, 2.8 career WAR before signing
Longoria: 6 years, $17.5 million, 3 club options, 20 major league at bats before signing
Moore: 5 years $14 million, 3 club options, 19 major league innings before signing
The differences here are obvious. Just one man's opinion, but I think the Reds are waiting too long. The Rays are pushing the envelope, and when you're in the AL East with their payroll, you need to. The risk the team is taking on is nothing compared to the potential reward. Obviously Longoria has worked out. Remember, Bruce and Longoria were fighting it out for the title of #1 prospect just a few summers ago. The Reds could have put themselves in the same position, and though Longoria has reached super-stardom, he is getting a third as much guaranteed money as Bruce.
What about Mike Leake? Straight out of college he has produced 2.5 WAR in his two seasons with the Reds, and his style has drawn comparisons to Greg Maddux (though obviously not quite at the same level). While not yet a star, he'll be just 24 next year and most consider him the second most reliable starter the Reds have (hopefully third most by the end of this offseason). Are the Reds waiting for his breakout year to sign him to a long term deal? Why not do it now for a fraction of the cost? I am literally just pulling numbers out of thin air here, but don't you think they could sign him to a Matt Moore type deal but with less money? Think of how little risk there is there with massive upside. Four years $10 million with a couple club options?
It's time for the Reds to be proactive and realize that teams with their payroll need to sign their promising young players BEFORE the price gets to high.
Showing posts with label Jay Bruce. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jay Bruce. Show all posts
Monday, December 12, 2011
Friday, December 10, 2010
Bruce a Red long term
So Jay Bruce just signed a 6 year, $51 million contract with the Reds (with an club option for a seventh year), which is great news. For all the talk of signing Votto long term, I think Bruce was the more important contract to get done, as he is 3 years younger than Votto and will be much less expensive at this point. I would also argue that Bruce's ceiling is a little higher, as he is a former #1 prospect (in all of baseball) and plays a more premium position (and plays it very well).
This deal could take Bruce through his age 30 season, clearly encompassing his peak yers but not taking on the risk of something like a 10 year contract. I think it's pretty ideal. The money is very reasonable too. A commenter on Redleg Nation conservatively estimated that Bruce would have gotten $30M in arbitration over the next 4 years, leaving around $21M for the remaining two years on the contract. Clearly a bargain.
Bruce was a 5+ WAR player last year when he really only began tapping into his offensive potential during the second half of the season. If he puts up 5 wins above replacement in his age 27 season, assuming only a 5% increase in the value of a win each year, he'd be worth around $29M for that year alone. Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, but it's kind of fun speculating what the Reds could be getting out of their star right fielder for years to come.
It's great news for Reds fans, and hopefully a great sign of things to come. Jocketty's recent signings of Cairo and Arroyo (don't get me wrong, I like Arroyo, but 3 years seems a bit unnecessary) had me a bit worried, but no one can argue with this one. And now I'm that much more excited to get that Bruce jersey I'm hoping to see under the tree this year.
This deal could take Bruce through his age 30 season, clearly encompassing his peak yers but not taking on the risk of something like a 10 year contract. I think it's pretty ideal. The money is very reasonable too. A commenter on Redleg Nation conservatively estimated that Bruce would have gotten $30M in arbitration over the next 4 years, leaving around $21M for the remaining two years on the contract. Clearly a bargain.
Bruce was a 5+ WAR player last year when he really only began tapping into his offensive potential during the second half of the season. If he puts up 5 wins above replacement in his age 27 season, assuming only a 5% increase in the value of a win each year, he'd be worth around $29M for that year alone. Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, but it's kind of fun speculating what the Reds could be getting out of their star right fielder for years to come.
It's great news for Reds fans, and hopefully a great sign of things to come. Jocketty's recent signings of Cairo and Arroyo (don't get me wrong, I like Arroyo, but 3 years seems a bit unnecessary) had me a bit worried, but no one can argue with this one. And now I'm that much more excited to get that Bruce jersey I'm hoping to see under the tree this year.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Chris Dickerson vs Drew Stubbs
As we all know, the Reds were supposed to be dark horse contenders this year. Their core of young players, a potentially solid pitching staff, a stable bullpen and improved defense were all ingredients for a possible playoff run. Well, so far, the starters have struggled (rookie Mike Leake leads the staff with a 3.92 ERA, but carries with it 13 walks and only 13 strikeouts in just over 20 IP), and the Reds promising outfield of youngsters - Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Dickerson - all have OBPs under .300.
Jay Bruce will hit. Or at least that's what I keep reading. Concerned Reds fans should keep in mind that Bruce just turned 23 this month. He's essentially been a league average hitter at ages 21 and 22 and his power numbers improved from 2008 to 2009. Additionally, his plate discipline drastically improved as he decreased his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate, raising his BB/K ratio from 0.30 to 0.51. He's had a relatively slow start to 2010, but of course it's early.
Which is what we should remember when considering Stubbs and Dickerson. I will admit that I was a big fan of Dickerson when he showed up in '08, and felt he deserved more playing time in the beginning of '09. Of course, his .413 OBP and .304 ISO was in only 122 plate appearances. In 2009 he showed a similar ability to get on base, posting a .370 OBP and a walk rate similar to '08. However, his power disappeared and his ISO dipped below .100. In fact, after hitting 6 HRs in his first 75 major league at bats, he's hit only 2 since (317 ABs).
This lack of power shouldn't be a big surprise, however. In the minors Dickerson averaged only 14 HRs per 650 plate appearances (18 in AAA), so we wouldn't expect him to keep pace with his 2008 numbers. The bottom line is, Dickerson got a late start because his numbers in the minors aren't overwhelming. He got his first taste with the big club at age 26 and took on part-timer duties at age 27. Now 28, Dickerson has continued to show an ability to walk, get on base, and occasionally swipe a bag, while playing above average defense. At this point he's not likely to change much as a player.
Meanwhile, the jury's still out on Stubbs. At 25 he's had a rough start to the 2010 season. 2009 was a bit better, but Stubbs still registered only a .323 OBP. He hasn't had enough major league at bats to draw any conclusions, but in the minors he posted .364 OBP and a decent stolen base percentage. Combine that with a surprising flash of power last year, speed, and above average defense, and Stubbs could do well patrolling centerfield in Great American Ball Park.
Conclusion: In this case we are comparing a relatively known (Dickerson) to a relatively unknown (Stubbs). Dickerson doesn't have a ton of major league ABs either, but his numbers with the big club are pretty well in line with his performance in the minors. Neither is likely to be a star, but both could potentially be serviceable in the Reds outfield alongside Jay Bruce. 2010 should be telling as both players are set to receive significant playing time. At this point, I'd have to go with Stubbs simply because he is 3 years younger and still has some time to develop. For the Reds to contend in 2010 though, the entire outfield needs to significantly improve upon its April.
Jay Bruce will hit. Or at least that's what I keep reading. Concerned Reds fans should keep in mind that Bruce just turned 23 this month. He's essentially been a league average hitter at ages 21 and 22 and his power numbers improved from 2008 to 2009. Additionally, his plate discipline drastically improved as he decreased his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate, raising his BB/K ratio from 0.30 to 0.51. He's had a relatively slow start to 2010, but of course it's early.
Which is what we should remember when considering Stubbs and Dickerson. I will admit that I was a big fan of Dickerson when he showed up in '08, and felt he deserved more playing time in the beginning of '09. Of course, his .413 OBP and .304 ISO was in only 122 plate appearances. In 2009 he showed a similar ability to get on base, posting a .370 OBP and a walk rate similar to '08. However, his power disappeared and his ISO dipped below .100. In fact, after hitting 6 HRs in his first 75 major league at bats, he's hit only 2 since (317 ABs).
This lack of power shouldn't be a big surprise, however. In the minors Dickerson averaged only 14 HRs per 650 plate appearances (18 in AAA), so we wouldn't expect him to keep pace with his 2008 numbers. The bottom line is, Dickerson got a late start because his numbers in the minors aren't overwhelming. He got his first taste with the big club at age 26 and took on part-timer duties at age 27. Now 28, Dickerson has continued to show an ability to walk, get on base, and occasionally swipe a bag, while playing above average defense. At this point he's not likely to change much as a player.
Meanwhile, the jury's still out on Stubbs. At 25 he's had a rough start to the 2010 season. 2009 was a bit better, but Stubbs still registered only a .323 OBP. He hasn't had enough major league at bats to draw any conclusions, but in the minors he posted .364 OBP and a decent stolen base percentage. Combine that with a surprising flash of power last year, speed, and above average defense, and Stubbs could do well patrolling centerfield in Great American Ball Park.
Conclusion: In this case we are comparing a relatively known (Dickerson) to a relatively unknown (Stubbs). Dickerson doesn't have a ton of major league ABs either, but his numbers with the big club are pretty well in line with his performance in the minors. Neither is likely to be a star, but both could potentially be serviceable in the Reds outfield alongside Jay Bruce. 2010 should be telling as both players are set to receive significant playing time. At this point, I'd have to go with Stubbs simply because he is 3 years younger and still has some time to develop. For the Reds to contend in 2010 though, the entire outfield needs to significantly improve upon its April.
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