Maybe not surprisingly, the earliest Reds moment I can distinctly remember watching, and can still play back in my memory today, occurred on October 20th, 1990 in the foul territory just next to first base. Todd Benzinger, not even the Reds regular first basemen (maybe he came in for defensive purposes) caught a harmless pop foul to complete a 4 game sweep of the mighty Oakland A's. I still have the Wheaties box with that Reds team on it. A "Wire to Wire" tshirt still inhabits my tshirt drawer. And just as many other lifelong baseball fans can point to a moment when their love of the game first began, I was hooked.
I could make the claim that my first academic memory came when I competed in the district math bees during my elementary years. Top 5 finishes in 1st and 2nd grade set the stage. You know those blurbs you sometimes see in magazines where they ask some professional athlete when they knew they could be something special? Well for me it wasn't athletics, but rather mathematics, and that moment occurred when I took home the gold in 3rd grade. Of course the very next year I tumbled out of the top 20, which made me worry I'd peaked early.
As with most things, I was a bit late to the Moneyball party. But when I finally got around to reading the book, I was into it. Since then I've developed and even deeper interest in the game, and guys like Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski (and many others) keep my interest piqued by writing (and talking, and talking about others' writing) about how the game is constantly evolving, and how the way we view it is ever changing.
So, I'll stop rambling on with lame backstory and say that I love baseball, probably more than ever before. And for someone who is also a numbers nerd, the "statistical revolution" of the last decade has been a lot of fun. Rob Neyer has his own blog on ESPN and this spring they have started a "blog network", with the ultimate goal to have an associated blog for every major league team. When I first heard about this endeavor I was excited since I had been unable to really find much of a Reds blog. Well as it turns out, I don't really think there is one, and certainly not one that has any sort of sabermetric focus (whatever that means exactly).
I'm not saying that my link will be on ESPN any time soon, but hey, why not take a negative (no Reds blog) and make it a positive (limited competition for beginner Reds bloggers). So that's what I've decided to do. You can see that I've taken two cracks at it already, and certainly there's a lot to learn. For instance, I went into that Brandon Phillips post ready to argue with anyone who thought Phillips should bat any higher than 5th in the lineup. After looking at some numbers though, I realized that the Reds really don't have any good top of the lineup guys. The post ended relatively soon after that.
The cool thing about blogging though, is that you can essentially do whatever you want (not to mention edit and proofread as little as you want). And what I want to do is this - take my thoughts and inquiries as a Reds fan (many of which are numbers driven) and put them in writing. And maybe, someday, those thoughts might catch the attention of a Rob Neyer, or someone else in the blogosphere. Hey, he's already read one of my posts! And actually, at this point, I think he's one of four people to read anything on here.
So to those who are actually taking in these words, enjoy!
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Monday, May 3, 2010
Why is Brandon Phillips batting 2nd?
Brandon Phillips has 109 plate appearances in 2010, going into Monday's games. All of them have occurred while Phillips is 2nd (27), 3rd (5), or 4th (77) in the lineup. This is a bit befuddling. Perhaps I shouldn't be befuddled, considering who manages this team. Dusty Baker has often been accused of (among other things) being too old school, ignoring cold hard stats in favor of (perceived) speed and what position a guy plays in the field. Hitting Phillips 2nd because he plays second base or is able to accumulate stolen bases over the course of the year is what managers did in decades of yore. Now we know better.
Most Reds fans know the Brandon Phillips story by now. He was dealt to Cleveland as a 20 year old prospect in 2002, along with some guys named Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee, in exchange for Bartolo Colon. Three and a half disappointing seasons later Phillips was given up on by the Indians. And understandably so. In 462 major league plate appearances Phillips had rung up an OPS+ of 48 and got caught stealing more times than he was successful. And then he was traded (or rather given) to the Reds. Joe Posnanski just wrote a post on how our expectations of a player can affect how we evaluate him. Posnanski references Royals player Alex Gordon in particular. Though he could very well contribute to his team, and potentially outhit several players currently occupying spots in the Royals lineup, he was just sent to AAA because the Royals are running out of patience.
Well it seems the oppotiste may have happened to Phillips. He immediately made an impact with the Reds in 2006, accumulating notable hits and stealing a whole bunch of bases while rarely getting caught. This from a guy who the Reds acquired for basically nobody. A guy Reds fans were told was a complete disappointment. Well we rejuvinated him! Get that man playing on the other side of the state and look what he can do! The very next year Phillips joined the 30-30 club and has gone 20-20 both years since. Add to that stellar defense and a flashy personality.
So what's the problem? Well, Phillips has an OPS+ of 97 as a Red. He's never shown much of an ability to walk nor has he posted an OBP higher than .331 (well below league average). He does steal bases nearly 75% of the time, which certain counts for something. I'm not sure where to find baserunning stats, but I wouldn't be surprised if Phillips is slightly disappointing given his speed, if only because he's been known to be a bit lackadasical.
The point is, does he belong at the top of a lineup? Probably not. However, a bigger question might be, who else do the Reds have? Despite an OBP figure of .318 this year, among qualified Reds hitters Phillips trails only Votto, Rolen, and Bruce. Are any of them leading off? Don't think so.
Last year? The only player with at least 300 ABs and a higher OBP was Votto, clearly this team's best hitter.
So maybe we can't blame Baker for throwing Phillips in the two spot. Hard to remember when offense was this team's strength.
Most Reds fans know the Brandon Phillips story by now. He was dealt to Cleveland as a 20 year old prospect in 2002, along with some guys named Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee, in exchange for Bartolo Colon. Three and a half disappointing seasons later Phillips was given up on by the Indians. And understandably so. In 462 major league plate appearances Phillips had rung up an OPS+ of 48 and got caught stealing more times than he was successful. And then he was traded (or rather given) to the Reds. Joe Posnanski just wrote a post on how our expectations of a player can affect how we evaluate him. Posnanski references Royals player Alex Gordon in particular. Though he could very well contribute to his team, and potentially outhit several players currently occupying spots in the Royals lineup, he was just sent to AAA because the Royals are running out of patience.
Well it seems the oppotiste may have happened to Phillips. He immediately made an impact with the Reds in 2006, accumulating notable hits and stealing a whole bunch of bases while rarely getting caught. This from a guy who the Reds acquired for basically nobody. A guy Reds fans were told was a complete disappointment. Well we rejuvinated him! Get that man playing on the other side of the state and look what he can do! The very next year Phillips joined the 30-30 club and has gone 20-20 both years since. Add to that stellar defense and a flashy personality.
So what's the problem? Well, Phillips has an OPS+ of 97 as a Red. He's never shown much of an ability to walk nor has he posted an OBP higher than .331 (well below league average). He does steal bases nearly 75% of the time, which certain counts for something. I'm not sure where to find baserunning stats, but I wouldn't be surprised if Phillips is slightly disappointing given his speed, if only because he's been known to be a bit lackadasical.
The point is, does he belong at the top of a lineup? Probably not. However, a bigger question might be, who else do the Reds have? Despite an OBP figure of .318 this year, among qualified Reds hitters Phillips trails only Votto, Rolen, and Bruce. Are any of them leading off? Don't think so.
Last year? The only player with at least 300 ABs and a higher OBP was Votto, clearly this team's best hitter.
So maybe we can't blame Baker for throwing Phillips in the two spot. Hard to remember when offense was this team's strength.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Chris Dickerson vs Drew Stubbs
As we all know, the Reds were supposed to be dark horse contenders this year. Their core of young players, a potentially solid pitching staff, a stable bullpen and improved defense were all ingredients for a possible playoff run. Well, so far, the starters have struggled (rookie Mike Leake leads the staff with a 3.92 ERA, but carries with it 13 walks and only 13 strikeouts in just over 20 IP), and the Reds promising outfield of youngsters - Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Dickerson - all have OBPs under .300.
Jay Bruce will hit. Or at least that's what I keep reading. Concerned Reds fans should keep in mind that Bruce just turned 23 this month. He's essentially been a league average hitter at ages 21 and 22 and his power numbers improved from 2008 to 2009. Additionally, his plate discipline drastically improved as he decreased his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate, raising his BB/K ratio from 0.30 to 0.51. He's had a relatively slow start to 2010, but of course it's early.
Which is what we should remember when considering Stubbs and Dickerson. I will admit that I was a big fan of Dickerson when he showed up in '08, and felt he deserved more playing time in the beginning of '09. Of course, his .413 OBP and .304 ISO was in only 122 plate appearances. In 2009 he showed a similar ability to get on base, posting a .370 OBP and a walk rate similar to '08. However, his power disappeared and his ISO dipped below .100. In fact, after hitting 6 HRs in his first 75 major league at bats, he's hit only 2 since (317 ABs).
This lack of power shouldn't be a big surprise, however. In the minors Dickerson averaged only 14 HRs per 650 plate appearances (18 in AAA), so we wouldn't expect him to keep pace with his 2008 numbers. The bottom line is, Dickerson got a late start because his numbers in the minors aren't overwhelming. He got his first taste with the big club at age 26 and took on part-timer duties at age 27. Now 28, Dickerson has continued to show an ability to walk, get on base, and occasionally swipe a bag, while playing above average defense. At this point he's not likely to change much as a player.
Meanwhile, the jury's still out on Stubbs. At 25 he's had a rough start to the 2010 season. 2009 was a bit better, but Stubbs still registered only a .323 OBP. He hasn't had enough major league at bats to draw any conclusions, but in the minors he posted .364 OBP and a decent stolen base percentage. Combine that with a surprising flash of power last year, speed, and above average defense, and Stubbs could do well patrolling centerfield in Great American Ball Park.
Conclusion: In this case we are comparing a relatively known (Dickerson) to a relatively unknown (Stubbs). Dickerson doesn't have a ton of major league ABs either, but his numbers with the big club are pretty well in line with his performance in the minors. Neither is likely to be a star, but both could potentially be serviceable in the Reds outfield alongside Jay Bruce. 2010 should be telling as both players are set to receive significant playing time. At this point, I'd have to go with Stubbs simply because he is 3 years younger and still has some time to develop. For the Reds to contend in 2010 though, the entire outfield needs to significantly improve upon its April.
Jay Bruce will hit. Or at least that's what I keep reading. Concerned Reds fans should keep in mind that Bruce just turned 23 this month. He's essentially been a league average hitter at ages 21 and 22 and his power numbers improved from 2008 to 2009. Additionally, his plate discipline drastically improved as he decreased his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate, raising his BB/K ratio from 0.30 to 0.51. He's had a relatively slow start to 2010, but of course it's early.
Which is what we should remember when considering Stubbs and Dickerson. I will admit that I was a big fan of Dickerson when he showed up in '08, and felt he deserved more playing time in the beginning of '09. Of course, his .413 OBP and .304 ISO was in only 122 plate appearances. In 2009 he showed a similar ability to get on base, posting a .370 OBP and a walk rate similar to '08. However, his power disappeared and his ISO dipped below .100. In fact, after hitting 6 HRs in his first 75 major league at bats, he's hit only 2 since (317 ABs).
This lack of power shouldn't be a big surprise, however. In the minors Dickerson averaged only 14 HRs per 650 plate appearances (18 in AAA), so we wouldn't expect him to keep pace with his 2008 numbers. The bottom line is, Dickerson got a late start because his numbers in the minors aren't overwhelming. He got his first taste with the big club at age 26 and took on part-timer duties at age 27. Now 28, Dickerson has continued to show an ability to walk, get on base, and occasionally swipe a bag, while playing above average defense. At this point he's not likely to change much as a player.
Meanwhile, the jury's still out on Stubbs. At 25 he's had a rough start to the 2010 season. 2009 was a bit better, but Stubbs still registered only a .323 OBP. He hasn't had enough major league at bats to draw any conclusions, but in the minors he posted .364 OBP and a decent stolen base percentage. Combine that with a surprising flash of power last year, speed, and above average defense, and Stubbs could do well patrolling centerfield in Great American Ball Park.
Conclusion: In this case we are comparing a relatively known (Dickerson) to a relatively unknown (Stubbs). Dickerson doesn't have a ton of major league ABs either, but his numbers with the big club are pretty well in line with his performance in the minors. Neither is likely to be a star, but both could potentially be serviceable in the Reds outfield alongside Jay Bruce. 2010 should be telling as both players are set to receive significant playing time. At this point, I'd have to go with Stubbs simply because he is 3 years younger and still has some time to develop. For the Reds to contend in 2010 though, the entire outfield needs to significantly improve upon its April.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Legal, but unnecessary
There was alot of talk leading up to Thursday's Bengals-Steelers game around the possibility of retribution. In the teams' first meeting on October 19th, Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward broke the jaw of Bengals rookie linebacker Keith Rivers. Rivers is now on IR (meaning, he's out for the year). No penalty was called; no fine imposed. Hines Ward is known as one of the toughest players at his position, if not in the entire NFL. If you're his teammate or a Steeler fan, you love him. Most everyone else feels otherwise. Ward's hit was deemed "legal" according to NFL rules, and that's not really the issue. Here's the video - unfortunately it's not great, but you get the idea.
So yes, I can agree that according to NFL rules, it is a legal hit. But why is that legal?? Every so often I read a player or writer talk about how the NFL going soft. Based on my own empirical research, I will say that more penalties are called now for unsportsmanlike conduct, roughing the passer, etc. Defensive players sometimes complain that they are worried about not drawing a penalty instead of simply making the play. I understand that there's an element of ferocity to the game that makes it what it is, and I understand why some players claim the league is "softer" than it used to be. But when players are unnecessarily getting their jaws broken on a play that was fully intentional (meaning that Hines Ward fully intended to legally block Keith Rivers by hitting him as hard as he can - I'm not implying that he intended to break his jaw), doesn't that indicate a problem?
Couldn't Ward have made a perfectly effective block without lowering his shoulder and leveling an unsuspecting Rivers? Rivers was pursuing the ball, paying no attention to potential blockers coming from down field (nor should he be). This play is seen all the time in football, most often during punt or interception returns. A player pursuing the ball carrier is blindsided by someone coming in to block him. This makes for great highlights on SportsCenter, but what about when a player's season is ended? This is a specific instance where a rule could be instated without changing the nature of the game. Conversely, if a defensive back levels a receiver as he attempts to catch the ball, jarring the ball free, this is a "necessary" play. If the defensive player doesn't hit the receiver as hard as he can and the receiver catches the ball, the defensive player is doing himself and his team a disservice. Of course, there are rules protecting the receiver, such as no helmet to helmet contact, but further limiting what the defender can do in this situation would certainly change the game. That is not the case with the Ward/Rivers play.
Isn't there a penalty called "unnecessary roughness"? I would propose that a play that breaks a player's jaw, when the exact same football outcome could have been achieved through other, less violent means, be deemed unnecessary.
**********
Please note: this post has nothing to do with my disdain for Hines Ward, which was nothing to do with the fact that I despise the Steelers.
So yes, I can agree that according to NFL rules, it is a legal hit. But why is that legal?? Every so often I read a player or writer talk about how the NFL going soft. Based on my own empirical research, I will say that more penalties are called now for unsportsmanlike conduct, roughing the passer, etc. Defensive players sometimes complain that they are worried about not drawing a penalty instead of simply making the play. I understand that there's an element of ferocity to the game that makes it what it is, and I understand why some players claim the league is "softer" than it used to be. But when players are unnecessarily getting their jaws broken on a play that was fully intentional (meaning that Hines Ward fully intended to legally block Keith Rivers by hitting him as hard as he can - I'm not implying that he intended to break his jaw), doesn't that indicate a problem?
Couldn't Ward have made a perfectly effective block without lowering his shoulder and leveling an unsuspecting Rivers? Rivers was pursuing the ball, paying no attention to potential blockers coming from down field (nor should he be). This play is seen all the time in football, most often during punt or interception returns. A player pursuing the ball carrier is blindsided by someone coming in to block him. This makes for great highlights on SportsCenter, but what about when a player's season is ended? This is a specific instance where a rule could be instated without changing the nature of the game. Conversely, if a defensive back levels a receiver as he attempts to catch the ball, jarring the ball free, this is a "necessary" play. If the defensive player doesn't hit the receiver as hard as he can and the receiver catches the ball, the defensive player is doing himself and his team a disservice. Of course, there are rules protecting the receiver, such as no helmet to helmet contact, but further limiting what the defender can do in this situation would certainly change the game. That is not the case with the Ward/Rivers play.
Isn't there a penalty called "unnecessary roughness"? I would propose that a play that breaks a player's jaw, when the exact same football outcome could have been achieved through other, less violent means, be deemed unnecessary.
**********
Please note: this post has nothing to do with my disdain for Hines Ward, which was nothing to do with the fact that I despise the Steelers.
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