Much ado about nothing...

So this is a post about how nothing is happening.  Seriously, there is really no Reds news to talk about, other than rumors and Jay Bruce's contract becoming reality.  Which of course is nothing to wag your finger at (did I say that right?).

But at this point that's probably the best news for Reds fans.  We don't need a GM who is going out making foolish moves just to do something.  We need a GM who is patient and waits for the right opportunity.  Who doesn't give up an ML guy and 2 top end prospects to land an ace who has had one excellent year.

I can honestly say that I've never been more interested in the Reds than I am right now.  That I've never followed off season baseball in the way that I am this year.  Football seems so secondary at the moment (probably being helped by the fact that the Bengals are an embarrassment).

Signing Bruce was the best thing that could have happened this off season.  I have mentioned being annoyed at WJ for not really doing anything and insisting that "our team is good" and that the young players will continue to improve.

That is probably true, but there are certainly other things to consider.  Will Janish hit like he did playing full time?  Will Cairo have another career year as a bench guy?  Will Rolen be able to be a viable clean up hitter (was he even last year)?  Will Arroyo win 17 games again?

These are all things that went exceptionally well last year that the Reds can't really count on happening again.  Yes, we have a lot of young players, especially on the pitching staff, who could be expected to improve.  And should everything go well, the Reds could have 3 or 4 top of the line starters.  But that's certainly far from a given, and considering everything that went right for the Reds last year, they'll need more than just a few improvements.  I mean, Joey Votto won't be beating out Albert Pujols for best player in the NL every year.

The Reds excelled in a number of things last year.  Two of the bigger ones, were bench play, and starting pitching depth.  As great as these things are, THEY DO NOT WIN A PLAYOFF SERIES.  Teams can get by with 3 starters in the DS.  Pitching depth does nothing there.  And while a good pinch hitter is helpful, I'd rather have another star than 3 good bench guys.

This has been an interesting off season and it's been so long since the Reds were defending division champs that I don't really know how it feels.  So far it's been nice, but it may be foolish to assume that the Reds can coast and still be contenders.  I am looking forward to that one big deal that gives the Reds that slight edge.  And I have faith that WJ will know just when to make it.

Bruce a Red long term

So Jay Bruce just signed a 6 year, $51 million contract with the Reds (with an club option for a seventh year), which is great news.  For all the talk of signing Votto long term, I think Bruce was the more important contract to get done, as he is 3 years younger than Votto and will be much less expensive at this point.  I would also argue that Bruce's ceiling is a little higher, as he is a former #1 prospect (in all of baseball) and plays a more premium position (and plays it very well).

This deal could take Bruce through his age 30 season, clearly encompassing his peak yers but not taking on the risk of something like a 10 year contract.  I think it's pretty ideal.  The money is very reasonable too.  A commenter on Redleg Nation conservatively estimated that Bruce would have gotten $30M in arbitration over the next 4 years, leaving around $21M for the remaining two years on the contract.  Clearly a bargain. 

Bruce was a 5+ WAR player last year when he really only began tapping into his offensive potential during the second half of the season.  If he puts up 5 wins above replacement in his age 27 season, assuming only a 5% increase in the value of a win each year, he'd be worth around $29M for that year alone.  Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, but it's kind of fun speculating what the Reds could be getting out of their star right fielder for years to come.

It's great news for Reds fans, and hopefully a great sign of things to come.  Jocketty's recent signings of Cairo and Arroyo (don't get me wrong, I like Arroyo, but 3 years seems a bit unnecessary) had me a bit worried, but no one can argue with this one.  And now I'm that much more excited to get that Bruce jersey I'm hoping to see under the tree this year.

Who's in Left?

It’s not news that the Reds’ most glaring need is in left field.  Despite Walt Jocketty’s comments (and, from what I’ve heard, the feelings of many Reds fans), Jonny Gomes did not perform adequately in 2010.  His 104 OPS+ is acceptable, though his .330 wOBA isn’t impressive, and it’s pretty clear his defense is abominable.  Gomes cost the Reds around 16 runs with his defense in 2010 (more than a win and a half).  Both fWAR and sWAR have him slightly below zero.  This is not someone who the Reds want manning left field for another 130 games.

Some of the online community would prefer Chris Heisey get a majority of the playing time.  And given no alternative, I agree.  As a rookie Heisey performed admirably.  His OPS+ and wOBA were similar to Gomes’ (103 and .328), but the difference is Heisey is a 25 year old rookie, and Gomes just turned 30.  The real difference though, is the defense.  Where Gomes was deficient, Heisey excelled, registering 5.6 runs above replacement in only 429 innings, according to Fangraphs.  Heisey is young and still developing, but it would seem that if the Reds don’t acquire anyone else, Heisey should get more of the playing time with Gomes certainly chiming in, as he does provide some production and can lesson the weight of full time duty.

The interesting part, however, is thinking about who the Reds could get to patrol the outfield with Bruce and Stubbs.  I’ll run down a list of names I’ve heard…

Shin-Soo Choo

I can’t imagine the Indians giving up Choo very easily.  He’s just entering his first year of arbitration, so his salary will remain reasonable for a few more years.  And he’s been a very good player, registering over 5 wins above replacement the last two years, with adequate defense.  He’d be near the top of my list.

Jacoby Ellsbury

Ellsbury is a bit of a conundrum.  He was a vital cog in the Red Sox plans a few years ago, and stole 120 bases at an outstanding rate during 08 and 09.  But 2010 was mostly lost to injury, and now the rumors are the Red Sox are thinking of moving him.  A closer look at Ellsbury’s defensive numbers over his two full years proves a bit odd.  In 08 Ellsbury started 129 games, about half of which were in center, and had an outstanding 21.3 UZR – second best among all outfielders.  2009 was a different story.  In 150 starts, all in center, Ellsbury cost the Red Sox almost 10 runs (a full win).  Where should he really be?  I don’t know, probably somewhere in the middle, and probably closer to 08, but we won’t really know until he plays full time again.  His offensive numbers did improve from 08 to 09, so in both years he was a very serviceable player.

Brett Gardner

I maintain that Gardner doesn’t move unless the Yanks get Crawford, which does have a decent likelihood of happening.  If Gardner becomes available, he’s at the top of my list along with Choo.  Gardner became a full time player for the first time in 2010 (at the age of 26) and responded with an outstanding year.  A .383 OBP, a .358 wOBA, a 47/9 stolen base ratio, and the best outfield defense in baseball according to UZR (spent mostly in left).

B.J. Upton

Upton had a couple great years, at ages 22 and 23.  In the two years since, the continued improvement the Rays had hoped to see hasn’t come, as reflected in Upton’s wOBA starting in 07 (.387, .354, .310, .337).  Upton’s defense saved him in 2009 – he ended up with 2.2 wins above replacement – and though he bounced back a bit offensively in 2010, his defense relapsed, going from 7.7 and 6.6 runs above replacement in the years prior, to 0.2.  We could probably expect a bounce back defensively in 2011.  Ultimately, Upton provides value, and at age 26 he still has room for improvement, despite a couple disappointing years.  Upton was also paid $3M last year and is arbitration eligible the next two years.  I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Reds took a chance with him, but he certainly isn’t my first choice.

Josh Willingham

Willingham didn’t get a shot in the bigs until he was 26, but he’s hit in every season, pretty consistently too.  Last year was his best year in many accounts.  His defense leaves a little to be desired, but overall he performs.  He’ll be 32 next year and will probably see a bit of a raise in his third year of arbitration (he made $4.6M last year).  You likely know what you’re going to get with Willingham.  He might provide a bit of power, not a whole lot of defense, and he isn’t necessarily coming at a bargain, but you could certainly do worse.

Chris Young

Young may have turned a corner in 2010 at the age of 26.  But we can’t know for sure, and his defense has not been impressive until this year either.  Considering he’s getting $20.5M over the next three years, it seems a bit of a gamble.

So there you have it, a mini rundown of a few randomly selected LFers that the Reds may or may not be interested in.  If I were to rank my favorites I’d probably go…

Choo

Gardner

Ellsbury

Willingham

Upton

Young

I guess we’ll see what happens.

Zack Greinke a Red?

Supposedly it's very possible that Zack Greinke gets traded before the start of the 2011 season.  The Rangers and Blue Jays appear to be the two teams that have shown interest so far, though it is fully expected that other teams get into this race and the Royals are by no means rushing into anything.  The Reds of course have also been linked, though so far Jocketty says they have not talked to anyone about it.

In the Winter Meetings live chat on ESPN Keith Law was asked if the Reds could be potential suiters.  His response, though purely speculation, was yes, and that he thought the Reds would be a great fit, as they are looking for a front line starter and have plenty of young talent to offer.  His suggestion was Mesoraco, Alonso, and Wood.  I've definitely seen those names thrown around in potential trade talks on the internets, so it seems to me the Reds could be willing to part with them.

My thoughts?  I don't know... I have trouble comparing current value to future value.  It sure would be neat to have a guy like Greinke though.