The Reds Performance in 2011

One of the best and worst parts of the month and a half leading up to the regular season is the endless stream of preseason outlooks and predictions.  I mean, everyone has to do it, but so many of them aren't worth reading and most of the time we will inevitably (1) forget they even existed once the season starts, or (2) realize how silly it is to try and predict the goings on of a baseball season.

However, one series that certainly IS worth reading is this 30-part Question of the Day bit that Rob Neyer is doing over at SB Nation.  Today he addresses the Reds, though it's funny because the actual question doesn't seem to have much to do with the majority of the post, but of course that doesn't really matter.*

*The question is about baseball fans in Ohio and he points out that both the Reds and Indians have had successful seasons recently but didn't seem to perform as well in attendance as one would have expected.

Neyer brings up many points that have been discussed over at Redleg Nation and have been thought by me at some time or another (and who knows, maybe I even wrote them down in previous posts... I don't really remember).  He basically covers the two key issues...

The Reds are highly unlikely to lead the league in scoring again. Among the 13 Reds who totaled at least 100 plate appearances, Orlando Cabrera was the only one who had a bad year at the plate. Everyone else was either adequate, good, or great. Cincinnati's catchers, mostly Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan ranked second in the league in RBI, third in OPS. Scott Rolen stayed reasonably healthy and added to his Hall of Fame resume. Joey Votto, you know about.


This should still be a good hitting team. But perhaps not a great one.

...

I haven't looked at the underlying projections, but I will guess the Reds project to 84 wins because their hitting is expected to regress and their pitching isn't expected to improve at all.


I'm not going to argue with PECOTA. I don't know which of these fellows will be a Cy Young candidate, either. And if the Reds can't figure out an answer, it might be a long season.

So to recap, (1) we can't count on the Reds offense performing as well as it did last year, and (2) the Reds have a deep rotation with a handful of middle of the rotation guys but no ace, yet.*

*I of course recommend reading the whole thing.  One commenter - I think he writes for the Red Reporter - does point out that PECOTA is by far the most pessimistic projection for the Reds in particular.

And that's basically it.  Listen, the Reds have a good team, and I think it's pretty cool that we're arguing to what degree the Reds will be above .500 instead of is this the year they finally have a winning record.  It's a nice discussion to have.

But the bottom line is, the Reds need an ace, and yes they have a very deep staff, but they are gambling that one will emerge internally.  And they were content to stand pat on offense with no significant upgrades at the two opportunity positions.

All the forecasts are really saying the same thing, with different levels of optimism.  My prediction?  I'm excited for the year, I love this Reds team, and it should be a great race in the Central.

The Oscars

Dammit.  Ok, from here on out, I promise to stop making promises about the next time I'm going post.  After all, actions speak louder than words.

There are a couple things rolling around in the ol' noggin that will likely inspire a random smattering of words, and I'll start with the Oscars, though this is sure to get lost among all the posts submitted by everyone and his/her brother about last night's Oscars.

For me this year was a bit different.  For (1) I've actually seen several of the films nominated for best picture.  And (2), I made a concerted effort to watch the show.  Well actually it wasn't necessarily my concerted effort... my girlfriend's uncle hosted a gathering, which was a lot of fun.

Three of the four I've seen (The Social Network, Black Swan, The King's Speech) I LOVED.  The fourth, Inception, was fine, but with all the pre-release hype I just didn't find myself blown away.  I remember telling Zach that it just tied up too nicely for me.  Anyway, the effects were still great so I have no qualms with it winning those types of awards.

Those first three though.  Man, I think I could watch them again and again and again.  I don't remember the last time I watched multiple movies that came out within a relatively short amount of time that I enjoyed that much.  The 8 or so minutes of the actual King's speech were gripping, and I think it was pretty telling that during the introduction to the best picture category it was used as a back drop.  Obviously there are six movies I didn't see, but I must say I think the right picture won.

Though I must say, at the last minute I found myself rooting for The Social Network.  It was just such an incredible movie that kind of came out of nowhere.  A movie about facebook winning best picture?  How ludicrous!  But it was not unworthy.  The writing is great, the story is great (even if most of it isn't true and was merely played up for Hollywood), and Jesse Eisenberg is quickly becoming one of my favorite people to watch.  I don't buy many movies but I'm pretty certain this one will be gracing my bookshelf.

I still want to see The Kids Are Alright and Toy Story 3.  Erin said Winter's Bone and The Fighter were good, but I don't expect to be seeking those out any time soon.  And I'm not watching James Franco cut his own arm off. 

Speaking of, did he do anything last night?  His biggest contribution seemed to be standing next to a pretty girl while trying not to look high as a kite.  I wonder if while the two of them were rehearsing for this thing it became painfully clear that Anne Hathaway would be carrying the show.  I mean that's what happened, right?  As if she needed another marketable skill.