Despite its title, this post was actually inspired by Trevor Cahill. I was reading Keith Law's take on the Cahill/Parker trade (he doesn't think the A's got enough) and Cahill's contract caught my eye. I hadn't realized he was signed through 2015 at a very reasonable price, with club options through 2017 (which includes very reasonable buyouts, I might add). In the last 2 years of the deal, Cahill will be making 7.5 and 12 million dollors (how much are the Reds giving Bronson Arroyo?) and as Law points out, Cahill has the potential to be more that just a middle of the rotation guy. In his age 22 and 23 seasons he's turned in 2.2 and 2.5 WAR (fangraphs).
But this isn't necessarily about Cahill. It's about his team friendly contract. This also got me to thinking about Matt Moore, who earlier this week may have set a new standard for team friendly contracts. His 5 year, $14M signing may make him the most valuable trade chip in baseball (again, fangraphs). And those numbers don't even include his 3 years of club options. See the fangraphs article for more details. This isn't the first time the Rays have done this. If Moore's contract is the most team friendly in baseball, it's only slightly more so than teammate Evan Longoria's. This isn't news, but when all is said and done the Rays have the potential to have enjoyed 9 years of Longoria's services at severely below market cost.
Point is, teams are doing this, and the Reds need to do this. They already have, somewhat, with Jay Bruce, but compare these contracts:
Bruce: 6 years, $51 million, 1 club option, 8.0 career WAR before signing
Cueto: 4 years, $27 million, 1 club option, 5.4 career WAR before signing
Cahill: 5 years, $30.5 million, 2 club options, 2.8 career WAR before signing
Longoria: 6 years, $17.5 million, 3 club options, 20 major league at bats before signing
Moore: 5 years $14 million, 3 club options, 19 major league innings before signing
The differences here are obvious. Just one man's opinion, but I think the Reds are waiting too long. The Rays are pushing the envelope, and when you're in the AL East with their payroll, you need to. The risk the team is taking on is nothing compared to the potential reward. Obviously Longoria has worked out. Remember, Bruce and Longoria were fighting it out for the title of #1 prospect just a few summers ago. The Reds could have put themselves in the same position, and though Longoria has reached super-stardom, he is getting a third as much guaranteed money as Bruce.
What about Mike Leake? Straight out of college he has produced 2.5 WAR in his two seasons with the Reds, and his style has drawn comparisons to Greg Maddux (though obviously not quite at the same level). While not yet a star, he'll be just 24 next year and most consider him the second most reliable starter the Reds have (hopefully third most by the end of this offseason). Are the Reds waiting for his breakout year to sign him to a long term deal? Why not do it now for a fraction of the cost? I am literally just pulling numbers out of thin air here, but don't you think they could sign him to a Matt Moore type deal but with less money? Think of how little risk there is there with massive upside. Four years $10 million with a couple club options?
It's time for the Reds to be proactive and realize that teams with their payroll need to sign their promising young players BEFORE the price gets to high.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Friday, December 9, 2011
Pujols (6 Thoughts)
After a night's sleep and a little more perspective, here's what I think:
1. Albert Pujols is a grown man with remarkable talents and is entitled to apply for a job wherever he chooses. Maybe it was money. Maybe it was location. Maybe he just felt like it.
2. Anyone demonizing him for taking more money needs to chill. Who here, when faced with the question: "Would you like to do the same job for less money?" would answer yes? Those attacking him for his supposed beliefs... you think more money in his pockets doesn't mean more money for his charities, organizations, churches, etc?
3. If it was in fact a higher power that led to this decision, thank you God for the mercy you have shown toward the other teams in the NL Central.
4. Despite my comments thus far, all along I thought it would be a sad day when Albert Pujols was no longer a Cardinal. I say this not for the sake of the Cardinals, but for the sake of baseball and its fans. Though it wasn't always pretty toward the end (from a business standpoint), Barry Larkin was a Red for his entire career. I know how it would have felt if he had played for the Mets, even during his twilight years. There is something about a player playing with one team and adds to the mystique of it all. And yesterday, that was lost. I'm not naive regarding the state of the game, or bitter about what free agency has done, but I still think it's worth celebrating when all of that fails to tear down the relationship between player and team.
5. It's still a business, and congrats to the Angels. Certain aspects of baseball economics are a mystery to me, but I guess the Angels have a lot of money. Something tells me, though, they'll come to regret this. It's funny because it seems so ludicrous when a team is paying a 38-year-old three or four times what he's worth, but we still can't help ourselves. I guess if they win a championship in the next several years it'll be worth it.
6. Thanks Albert for casting a dark cloud over what was a miracle season for the team I hate most. Things feel a little more right.
1. Albert Pujols is a grown man with remarkable talents and is entitled to apply for a job wherever he chooses. Maybe it was money. Maybe it was location. Maybe he just felt like it.
2. Anyone demonizing him for taking more money needs to chill. Who here, when faced with the question: "Would you like to do the same job for less money?" would answer yes? Those attacking him for his supposed beliefs... you think more money in his pockets doesn't mean more money for his charities, organizations, churches, etc?
3. If it was in fact a higher power that led to this decision, thank you God for the mercy you have shown toward the other teams in the NL Central.
4. Despite my comments thus far, all along I thought it would be a sad day when Albert Pujols was no longer a Cardinal. I say this not for the sake of the Cardinals, but for the sake of baseball and its fans. Though it wasn't always pretty toward the end (from a business standpoint), Barry Larkin was a Red for his entire career. I know how it would have felt if he had played for the Mets, even during his twilight years. There is something about a player playing with one team and adds to the mystique of it all. And yesterday, that was lost. I'm not naive regarding the state of the game, or bitter about what free agency has done, but I still think it's worth celebrating when all of that fails to tear down the relationship between player and team.
5. It's still a business, and congrats to the Angels. Certain aspects of baseball economics are a mystery to me, but I guess the Angels have a lot of money. Something tells me, though, they'll come to regret this. It's funny because it seems so ludicrous when a team is paying a 38-year-old three or four times what he's worth, but we still can't help ourselves. I guess if they win a championship in the next several years it'll be worth it.
6. Thanks Albert for casting a dark cloud over what was a miracle season for the team I hate most. Things feel a little more right.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Is This Thing On?
Time to warm up the engines again. The moment has come to end another dry spell.* That's why I'm starting slow (with a post that will probably have a longer asterisk than actual content). MLB's Fan Cave has completed its first year and is currently open for applications for 2012. Apparently the format will be slightly different as well. They seem to be planning to accept a handful of applicants and implement a reality show format where contestants get voted off every so often. Honestly though I'm not concerning myself too much with those details... I like to be surprised. Point is, there's a higher chance of being selected.
*As usual I've done some soul searching to determine the cause of the lastest one, and not surprisingly, many of the usual suspects have emerged: (1) Sadly, when your team is disappointing, there is less motivation to write about them, or the sport in general. However, I will say that, as was noted over at Redleg Nation, this team wasn't just disappointing. They didn't just finish below .500 like so many Reds teams of the last decade. They severely underachieved, and at no point looked like they would be any threat to the central division title. They looked lifeless and disinterested, and digging deeper into that just seemed cruel and unusual.
(2) I find that it's much easier for me to write during the offseason than during the season. I think this is because not as much is happening in the offseason. The internets are less saturated (are there degrees of saturation?). Additionally, something else I noticed more than ever this season... I found it increasingly difficult to do analysis on a day to day basis because one day of baseball is like the blink of an eye. How different, really, is one from the next. Alternatively, analyzing an entire season is where real trends emerge. It allows us to evaluate our teams and make decisions. If you'll notice, it's really incredible how much perceptions can change from May to September. Personally, I like to just watch and enjoy the games, rather than try and break down every minutia.
And (3), this was really only an issue in September and October, but who knew the Bengals would be relevant? I certainly didn't. After last year I almost thought my interest in the NFL would disappear entirely. The Bengals were dreadful, and I was pretty sick of all the concussions and violence and "it's football, be a man" talk that was going on. Turns out my football convictions aren't very strong, and rooting for a team without T.Ocho and with two standout rookies is unexpectedly refreshing.
Oh, and there's a (4)... I've been attending to some family stuff since July and really, finding free time to write about baseball was extremely difficult.
Anyway, as Poz would say, sorry, I'm back. And so, consider this the start of a new non-dry spell, with posts upcoming about whatever I feel like writing. Until next time, go Reds. Do something. Please.
*As usual I've done some soul searching to determine the cause of the lastest one, and not surprisingly, many of the usual suspects have emerged: (1) Sadly, when your team is disappointing, there is less motivation to write about them, or the sport in general. However, I will say that, as was noted over at Redleg Nation, this team wasn't just disappointing. They didn't just finish below .500 like so many Reds teams of the last decade. They severely underachieved, and at no point looked like they would be any threat to the central division title. They looked lifeless and disinterested, and digging deeper into that just seemed cruel and unusual.
(2) I find that it's much easier for me to write during the offseason than during the season. I think this is because not as much is happening in the offseason. The internets are less saturated (are there degrees of saturation?). Additionally, something else I noticed more than ever this season... I found it increasingly difficult to do analysis on a day to day basis because one day of baseball is like the blink of an eye. How different, really, is one from the next. Alternatively, analyzing an entire season is where real trends emerge. It allows us to evaluate our teams and make decisions. If you'll notice, it's really incredible how much perceptions can change from May to September. Personally, I like to just watch and enjoy the games, rather than try and break down every minutia.
And (3), this was really only an issue in September and October, but who knew the Bengals would be relevant? I certainly didn't. After last year I almost thought my interest in the NFL would disappear entirely. The Bengals were dreadful, and I was pretty sick of all the concussions and violence and "it's football, be a man" talk that was going on. Turns out my football convictions aren't very strong, and rooting for a team without T.Ocho and with two standout rookies is unexpectedly refreshing.
Oh, and there's a (4)... I've been attending to some family stuff since July and really, finding free time to write about baseball was extremely difficult.
Anyway, as Poz would say, sorry, I'm back. And so, consider this the start of a new non-dry spell, with posts upcoming about whatever I feel like writing. Until next time, go Reds. Do something. Please.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Division Run Down: NL East
Getting my first real taste of live preseason baseball right now. Yeah, it's the Yankees and Red Sox and we'll probably see them on national tv another couple hundred times this year, but it's still pretty great. I approve of ESPN's new Sunday Night Baseball crew.
Is it just me or does Spring Training just feel more right in Florida. I need those palm trees. Saturday can't come soon enough.
So, just to remind my reader out there (no, that wasn't a typo), I've been running down the 2011 baseball season division by division. Rather than go with straight projections I've tried to give it a little more character by simply naming the favorite and the anti-favorite, and then labeling teams based on my inclination to root for them. And remember, my thoughts and feelings are subject to change based on whatever's convenient at the time.
Friday through Sunday we ran through the American League (you know, cuz we don't want anyone feeling left out). On to the National League East...
The Favorite: Philadelphia Phillies
Not exciting, I know. I really wanted to knock the Phillies off their perch (not that I'm bitter or anything), but I simply can't justify it. Chase Utley's knee is a major question mark though, and on top of that, I just can't imagine their four aces working out exactly as planned. At least one will have a down year, or will get hurt, or something, and their aging offense won't be enough to pick up the slack. And I like the Braves (more on them later), but for now I gotta go by the book.
The Neglected: Washington Nationals
Again, the status quo. What were they doing this offseason exactly? Did they think they were a few expensive pieces away from contending? Well with that rotation you need a little more than Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche. Ryan Zimmerman is probably the most underrated player in the NL, and I love the guy, but he needs help, and he doesn't have it. Jordan Zimmermann is an interesting guy to watch, and I honestly think he and Gorzelanny might prove to be their two best starters. The Nats are probably a few years away, IF Strasburg has a successful recovery and Harper does what he's supposed to, but 2011's not their year.
Most Likable Team: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are often listed near the top in organizational prospect lists (no one's passing the Royals or Rays) and that makes them one of the more exciting teams to watch. Joining Heyward among this year's starters is first baseman Freddie Freeman, and likely accompanying Tommy Hanson in the rotation is youngster Mike Minor. Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters bring a ton of youth and power to the backend of the bullpen, and who isn't rooting for Chipper Jones at this point in his career (well, maybe a lot of people, I don't really know... but I like him). And Brian McCann is quietly having a superb start to his still young career. Throw in a couple likable guys like Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson at the front of the rotation and this is a no brainer.
Least Likable Team: New York Mets
They spend like they have the money (which they do) and know what they're doing (not so much). This team is so sad that I mostly just feel bad for Mets fans. There's been enough drama and disappointment over the last few years that I'm just going to opt for brevity on this one, for all our sakes.
Potential story line:
I swear I'm not doing this on purpose, but I gotta go with the team I've yet to mention. Since their existance I've found the Florida Marlins to be possibly the most facinating team in baseball. They've won two World Series in less than 20 years and seem to find a way to contend no matter how many stars they trade away or how many young, unproven players they trot out there. And it looks like they're in position to do it yet again. They have five very viable young starters, including a bona fide Cy Young candidate in Josh Johnson, potential stars Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton man the outfield, Gabby Sanchez had a very strong rookie campaign, and of course their shortstop is pretty good too. One thing I find borderline laughable... is that Wes Helms penciled in at third? Regardless, I won't be surprised when the Marlins are nipping at the heels of the Phillies and Braves come August.
Overall Results: (slightly adjusted...)
Phillies 90
Braves 89 (+1)
Marlins 83
Mets 75
Nationals 70 (+1)
Is it just me or does Spring Training just feel more right in Florida. I need those palm trees. Saturday can't come soon enough.
So, just to remind my reader out there (no, that wasn't a typo), I've been running down the 2011 baseball season division by division. Rather than go with straight projections I've tried to give it a little more character by simply naming the favorite and the anti-favorite, and then labeling teams based on my inclination to root for them. And remember, my thoughts and feelings are subject to change based on whatever's convenient at the time.
Friday through Sunday we ran through the American League (you know, cuz we don't want anyone feeling left out). On to the National League East...
The Favorite: Philadelphia Phillies
Not exciting, I know. I really wanted to knock the Phillies off their perch (not that I'm bitter or anything), but I simply can't justify it. Chase Utley's knee is a major question mark though, and on top of that, I just can't imagine their four aces working out exactly as planned. At least one will have a down year, or will get hurt, or something, and their aging offense won't be enough to pick up the slack. And I like the Braves (more on them later), but for now I gotta go by the book.
The Neglected: Washington Nationals
Again, the status quo. What were they doing this offseason exactly? Did they think they were a few expensive pieces away from contending? Well with that rotation you need a little more than Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche. Ryan Zimmerman is probably the most underrated player in the NL, and I love the guy, but he needs help, and he doesn't have it. Jordan Zimmermann is an interesting guy to watch, and I honestly think he and Gorzelanny might prove to be their two best starters. The Nats are probably a few years away, IF Strasburg has a successful recovery and Harper does what he's supposed to, but 2011's not their year.
Most Likable Team: Atlanta Braves
The Braves are often listed near the top in organizational prospect lists (no one's passing the Royals or Rays) and that makes them one of the more exciting teams to watch. Joining Heyward among this year's starters is first baseman Freddie Freeman, and likely accompanying Tommy Hanson in the rotation is youngster Mike Minor. Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters bring a ton of youth and power to the backend of the bullpen, and who isn't rooting for Chipper Jones at this point in his career (well, maybe a lot of people, I don't really know... but I like him). And Brian McCann is quietly having a superb start to his still young career. Throw in a couple likable guys like Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson at the front of the rotation and this is a no brainer.
Least Likable Team: New York Mets
They spend like they have the money (which they do) and know what they're doing (not so much). This team is so sad that I mostly just feel bad for Mets fans. There's been enough drama and disappointment over the last few years that I'm just going to opt for brevity on this one, for all our sakes.
Potential story line:
I swear I'm not doing this on purpose, but I gotta go with the team I've yet to mention. Since their existance I've found the Florida Marlins to be possibly the most facinating team in baseball. They've won two World Series in less than 20 years and seem to find a way to contend no matter how many stars they trade away or how many young, unproven players they trot out there. And it looks like they're in position to do it yet again. They have five very viable young starters, including a bona fide Cy Young candidate in Josh Johnson, potential stars Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton man the outfield, Gabby Sanchez had a very strong rookie campaign, and of course their shortstop is pretty good too. One thing I find borderline laughable... is that Wes Helms penciled in at third? Regardless, I won't be surprised when the Marlins are nipping at the heels of the Phillies and Braves come August.
Overall Results: (slightly adjusted...)
Phillies 90
Braves 89 (+1)
Marlins 83
Mets 75
Nationals 70 (+1)
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Division Run Down: AL West
Something about a four team division makes it seem like a crap shoot every year. Though this time I think there's a particular order popping up more often than not. But of course, that usually means nothing...
The Favorite: Texas Rangers
They won the division comfortably last year, made the World Series, and though they lost their ace, the Rangers added free agent Adrian Beltre, they have the reigning American League MVP, and they will trot out a couple young starters showing promise, most notably Derek Holland. They aren't without questions: Can Josh Hamilton say healthy, will Colby Lewis duplicate his 2010, and of course, what role will Neftali Feliz ultimately settle into? Still, no other team in the West is in position to pass the Rangers.
The Neglected: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners lost 100 games last season for the second time in three years. Much has been said about the unlikelihood of everyone on the team playing as poorly as they did, which should put them in line for an increased win total without changing much. That being said, it's not hard to go up from 61, and they're still putting a lot of faith in youngsters Saunders and Smoak, and have very little starting pitching depth behind Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez. It's unlikely Seattle sniffs the .500 mark this year.
Most Likable Team: Oakland Athletics
It's funny, throughout the 90's the A's were unquestionably my least favorite team in baseball. As a young, impressionable baseball fan I was left with a bad taste in my mouth when the Reds weren't given much of a chance going in the 1990 World Series. That feeling lingered as players like McGwire, Canseco, Henderson, and Stewart just struck me as unlikable.
All that changed at the turn of the century when the A's were the focus of a new kind of baseball and the subject of some book that a bunch of people read. Now the A's play the role of perpetual underdog as they try to win with less, endlessly searching for baseball market inefficiencies. A stash of young, promising starters and a handful of slick fielding batsmen with some power peppered in here and there gives this team just enough to be interesting.
Least Likable Team: Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim?)
Having only four teams limits our choices here (though I never really made it a rule that I wouldn't select a team for more than one category, it just kind of worked out that way so far). But I think the Angels fit the bill here. Acquiring Vernon Wells this offseason probably qualifies them immediately (I have nothing against Wells personally, it's just clearly an unlikable move). Add in their silly name changes and I think it's an open and shut case.
Potential story line:
Is Billy Beane back? I admittedly haven't had much of a chance to keep up with this story, but wasn't there talk of Beane being more interested in soccer than baseball last year? Add in the fact that the A's haven't finished above .500 since 2006 and to most people Moneyball is a distant memory (or something to be proven ineffective). If the A's young pitchers keep improving and the offense produces just enough to compliment their above average run prevention, I personally would like to see the Moneyball naysayers put back in their place just a bit (or at least we can try and convince them that they just don't understand what they're talking about, but that seems unlikely).
Overall Result: (slightly adjusted...)
Rangers 87 (+1)
Athletics 83
Angels 79 (+1)
Mariners 73
The Favorite: Texas Rangers
They won the division comfortably last year, made the World Series, and though they lost their ace, the Rangers added free agent Adrian Beltre, they have the reigning American League MVP, and they will trot out a couple young starters showing promise, most notably Derek Holland. They aren't without questions: Can Josh Hamilton say healthy, will Colby Lewis duplicate his 2010, and of course, what role will Neftali Feliz ultimately settle into? Still, no other team in the West is in position to pass the Rangers.
The Neglected: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners lost 100 games last season for the second time in three years. Much has been said about the unlikelihood of everyone on the team playing as poorly as they did, which should put them in line for an increased win total without changing much. That being said, it's not hard to go up from 61, and they're still putting a lot of faith in youngsters Saunders and Smoak, and have very little starting pitching depth behind Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez. It's unlikely Seattle sniffs the .500 mark this year.
Most Likable Team: Oakland Athletics
It's funny, throughout the 90's the A's were unquestionably my least favorite team in baseball. As a young, impressionable baseball fan I was left with a bad taste in my mouth when the Reds weren't given much of a chance going in the 1990 World Series. That feeling lingered as players like McGwire, Canseco, Henderson, and Stewart just struck me as unlikable.
All that changed at the turn of the century when the A's were the focus of a new kind of baseball and the subject of some book that a bunch of people read. Now the A's play the role of perpetual underdog as they try to win with less, endlessly searching for baseball market inefficiencies. A stash of young, promising starters and a handful of slick fielding batsmen with some power peppered in here and there gives this team just enough to be interesting.
Least Likable Team: Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim?)
Having only four teams limits our choices here (though I never really made it a rule that I wouldn't select a team for more than one category, it just kind of worked out that way so far). But I think the Angels fit the bill here. Acquiring Vernon Wells this offseason probably qualifies them immediately (I have nothing against Wells personally, it's just clearly an unlikable move). Add in their silly name changes and I think it's an open and shut case.
Potential story line:
Is Billy Beane back? I admittedly haven't had much of a chance to keep up with this story, but wasn't there talk of Beane being more interested in soccer than baseball last year? Add in the fact that the A's haven't finished above .500 since 2006 and to most people Moneyball is a distant memory (or something to be proven ineffective). If the A's young pitchers keep improving and the offense produces just enough to compliment their above average run prevention, I personally would like to see the Moneyball naysayers put back in their place just a bit (or at least we can try and convince them that they just don't understand what they're talking about, but that seems unlikely).
Overall Result: (slightly adjusted...)
Rangers 87 (+1)
Athletics 83
Angels 79 (+1)
Mariners 73
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Division Run Down: AL Central
Today we move westerly in the American League and take on the Central, where it appears we'll have three teams battling it out for most of the season...
The Favorite: Minnesota Twins
I don't know if you can officially call any of the Twins, White Sox, or Tigers the "favorite", but the way I see it, this team has finished first the past three years (though technically they were tied with the White Sox in 2008 and lost the one game playoff), and are the favorites until someone else proves otherwise. After eight months Justin Morneau has finally seen live big league action, and assuming he can make a full recovery, I think you have to project this team slightly ahead of it's competitors. Remember, they did it last year without any help from Joe Nathan and only half a year from Morneau.
The Neglected: Kansas City Royals
The Royals have finished 4th or 5th in the AL Central for seven straight years. They just traded away their ace. They signed Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera in the offseason. Recipe for a turnaround? No. But everyone knows what the Royals are playing for, and that's 2013 and beyond. As for 2011, fans will have to be content with battling for 4th place and having a Yuni-less infield.
Most Likable Team: Chicago White Sox
The Twins are very likable. Small market. Down-to-earth face of the franchise catcher. But I'm going with the White Sox here because they hit a lot of homeruns, and I think Adam Dunn and Mark Buehrle are two of the more interesting guys in baseball. Having seen a lot of Adam Dunn in Cincinnati, he really is one of the funniest players I've heard talk. And seriously, doesn't Buehrle seem to do something awesome and bad ass pretty much every year (see here for proof). Besides all that, I live in Chicago, and it's always good to support the hometown team (even if I don't live on the south side).
Least Likable Team: Cleveland Indians
This is probably more of a personal thing rather than a widespread sentiment. They just seem like a team of no consequence that really isn't doing much of anything. And it makes me sad. I mean, what happened to Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner and Matt LaPorta and Fausto Carmona (speaking of, who on earth assembled that rotation). And I feel bad for Shin-Soo Choo because he really is one of the ten best outfielders in baseball and doesn't get much credit for it. Hard to say when they'll become relevant again.
Potential story line:
The easy answer here is Miguel Cabrera, and it's my blog so I'm going with the easy answer. I hope the guy can get back on track, because he is good at hitting a baseball, and it'd be a shame, both for him and for us, if that talent was wasted in any way.
Overall Result:
Twins 87
White Sox 85
Tigers 82
Indians 69
Royals 67
The Favorite: Minnesota Twins
I don't know if you can officially call any of the Twins, White Sox, or Tigers the "favorite", but the way I see it, this team has finished first the past three years (though technically they were tied with the White Sox in 2008 and lost the one game playoff), and are the favorites until someone else proves otherwise. After eight months Justin Morneau has finally seen live big league action, and assuming he can make a full recovery, I think you have to project this team slightly ahead of it's competitors. Remember, they did it last year without any help from Joe Nathan and only half a year from Morneau.
The Neglected: Kansas City Royals
The Royals have finished 4th or 5th in the AL Central for seven straight years. They just traded away their ace. They signed Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera in the offseason. Recipe for a turnaround? No. But everyone knows what the Royals are playing for, and that's 2013 and beyond. As for 2011, fans will have to be content with battling for 4th place and having a Yuni-less infield.
Most Likable Team: Chicago White Sox
The Twins are very likable. Small market. Down-to-earth face of the franchise catcher. But I'm going with the White Sox here because they hit a lot of homeruns, and I think Adam Dunn and Mark Buehrle are two of the more interesting guys in baseball. Having seen a lot of Adam Dunn in Cincinnati, he really is one of the funniest players I've heard talk. And seriously, doesn't Buehrle seem to do something awesome and bad ass pretty much every year (see here for proof). Besides all that, I live in Chicago, and it's always good to support the hometown team (even if I don't live on the south side).
Least Likable Team: Cleveland Indians
This is probably more of a personal thing rather than a widespread sentiment. They just seem like a team of no consequence that really isn't doing much of anything. And it makes me sad. I mean, what happened to Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner and Matt LaPorta and Fausto Carmona (speaking of, who on earth assembled that rotation). And I feel bad for Shin-Soo Choo because he really is one of the ten best outfielders in baseball and doesn't get much credit for it. Hard to say when they'll become relevant again.
Potential story line:
The easy answer here is Miguel Cabrera, and it's my blog so I'm going with the easy answer. I hope the guy can get back on track, because he is good at hitting a baseball, and it'd be a shame, both for him and for us, if that talent was wasted in any way.
Overall Result:
Twins 87
White Sox 85
Tigers 82
Indians 69
Royals 67
Friday, March 11, 2011
Division Run Down: AL East
Inspired by my Oriole-themed tweet/note from yesterday, I'd like to try something a little different (different as in non-Reds related*). I know there are millions of places to go to find preseason predictions, but since all those other places have little to do with me personally, I'd like to do my own division-by-division run down before the season starts, hopefully in a way that's at least little bit different and keeps things interesting. Also note that I hope to do this mostly off-the-cuff, without a significant amount of in depth research (though I imagine I won't be able to help myself and will still look stuff up as I'm going along).
*This may become less of an exception for the time being for one main reason. Last week I applied to MLB's Ultimate Dream Job (learn more here). I honestly have no idea what to expect, but I figured hey, why not give it a shot. Because really, I can't imagine a more aptly named job. And since I included a link to this site on the application, I'm trying to include a few things from around the league. You know... showcase my supposed versatility.
That said, let's dive right in with baseball toughest division, the AL East...
The Favorite: Boston Red Sox
No surprise here. I don't think you could find another team listed atop any version of the 2011 projected standings.
The Neglected: Toronto Blue Jays
This has been written about countless times, but the AL East is just brutal. And now that you can no longer count on the Rays to annually occupy the cellar, it's even worse. You're either going to see the Blue Jays or the Orioles here, and if you've been paying any attention at all you know my newly found bias isn't letting Baltimore in the basement.
It's almost as disheartening putting the Blue Jays there however as it seems, along with a handful of other teams, Toronto has a pretty stat-centric front office. And of course Alex Anthopoulos is an intriguing figure and personally I'd like to see him do well.
Unfortunately for Major League Baseball's Canadian representative, it seems they will once again fall victim to the depth of the AL East. The offense showed last year it can hit some homeruns, but was it a Rogers Center phenomenon? Overall it still lacks some punch, and their young staff doesn't look quite as impressive to me as the O's.
One thing Jays fans should be celebrating all year long? A Vernon Wells-less outfield (or more importantly, a Vernon Wells contract-less budget).
Most likable team: Baltimore Orioles
In this section I hope to add some personal flavor by choosing a team in each division I'm somewhat inclined to root for. In this case, the Rays might be a favorite for some, but I'm all about new blood, and at this point the Rays have been at or near the top for three or so years and I'm ready for someone else to rise above the oppression. I'm not saying the Orioles are going to the playoffs or anything, but let's preview that lineup...
Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Derrek Lee
Mark Reynolds
Vlad Guerrero
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
J.J. Hardy
Adam Jones
That is solid top to bottom. Yeah there are some veterans with question marks (Lee, Guerrero) and some younger guys with question marks (Wieters, Jones), but there's enough stability and enough upside that I think it could turn out well. At least fun to watch.
Least likable team: New York Yankees
You were expecting somebody else?
Potential story line:
If either of the Red Sox' new toys struggles at all out of the gate, it'll be big news. The Red Sox are coming off of what they would consider a down year. They spent lots of money, traded for the biggest name out there, and now have all the pressure that comes with it. I think Adrian Gonzalez could have a giant year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the MVP. But with great expectations comes the potential for a great letdown.
Overall Result:
Red Sox 95
Yankees 92
Rays 87
Orioles 80
Blue Jays 72
*This may become less of an exception for the time being for one main reason. Last week I applied to MLB's Ultimate Dream Job (learn more here). I honestly have no idea what to expect, but I figured hey, why not give it a shot. Because really, I can't imagine a more aptly named job. And since I included a link to this site on the application, I'm trying to include a few things from around the league. You know... showcase my supposed versatility.
That said, let's dive right in with baseball toughest division, the AL East...
The Favorite: Boston Red Sox
No surprise here. I don't think you could find another team listed atop any version of the 2011 projected standings.
The Neglected: Toronto Blue Jays
This has been written about countless times, but the AL East is just brutal. And now that you can no longer count on the Rays to annually occupy the cellar, it's even worse. You're either going to see the Blue Jays or the Orioles here, and if you've been paying any attention at all you know my newly found bias isn't letting Baltimore in the basement.
It's almost as disheartening putting the Blue Jays there however as it seems, along with a handful of other teams, Toronto has a pretty stat-centric front office. And of course Alex Anthopoulos is an intriguing figure and personally I'd like to see him do well.
Unfortunately for Major League Baseball's Canadian representative, it seems they will once again fall victim to the depth of the AL East. The offense showed last year it can hit some homeruns, but was it a Rogers Center phenomenon? Overall it still lacks some punch, and their young staff doesn't look quite as impressive to me as the O's.
One thing Jays fans should be celebrating all year long? A Vernon Wells-less outfield (or more importantly, a Vernon Wells contract-less budget).
Most likable team: Baltimore Orioles
In this section I hope to add some personal flavor by choosing a team in each division I'm somewhat inclined to root for. In this case, the Rays might be a favorite for some, but I'm all about new blood, and at this point the Rays have been at or near the top for three or so years and I'm ready for someone else to rise above the oppression. I'm not saying the Orioles are going to the playoffs or anything, but let's preview that lineup...
Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Derrek Lee
Mark Reynolds
Vlad Guerrero
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
J.J. Hardy
Adam Jones
That is solid top to bottom. Yeah there are some veterans with question marks (Lee, Guerrero) and some younger guys with question marks (Wieters, Jones), but there's enough stability and enough upside that I think it could turn out well. At least fun to watch.
Least likable team: New York Yankees
You were expecting somebody else?
Potential story line:
If either of the Red Sox' new toys struggles at all out of the gate, it'll be big news. The Red Sox are coming off of what they would consider a down year. They spent lots of money, traded for the biggest name out there, and now have all the pressure that comes with it. I think Adrian Gonzalez could have a giant year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the MVP. But with great expectations comes the potential for a great letdown.
Overall Result:
Red Sox 95
Yankees 92
Rays 87
Orioles 80
Blue Jays 72
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Odds and Ends
Having some friends over for dinner tonight but wanted to get a few thoughts in...
--Just tweeted this, but I'm slowly becoming an Orioles fan (secondary to the Reds of course). They made a lot of interesting offseason moves, seem to be set at every position, have a young pitching staff, and of course play the role of underdog every year in the loaded AL East. But most importantly, their new preseason home is our favorite spring training destination. I think I need to get a hat.
--Currently in the middle of a massive fantasy draft. It's done through Fangraphs, which has a new fantasy game this year, and luckily there is a pause function. League has 12 teams and 40 roster spots per team, which if you're counting at home, is a lot of draft. Hopefully we can get that done on Sunday. I'm enjoying living out my fantasy of being a GM.
--As awesome as it is that baseball games are being played, I have a hard time getting caught up in spring stats because it's such a small sample size. And players are facing guys who won't be in the major leagues much of the time. I know this isn't a new concept. I'll be glad when I'm down there watching games in person.
--If you haven't caught on yet, I'll be heading to Sarasota, Florida in a week to take in some sun, beach, beer, and baseball. The plan is to attend at least one Orioles game, a Pirates game, and a Phillies game cuz they have a nice new stadium and amazing cheesesteaks. As you might imagine, I'm very excited.
That's all for now. Time to get ready for the Cincy/ND game.
--Just tweeted this, but I'm slowly becoming an Orioles fan (secondary to the Reds of course). They made a lot of interesting offseason moves, seem to be set at every position, have a young pitching staff, and of course play the role of underdog every year in the loaded AL East. But most importantly, their new preseason home is our favorite spring training destination. I think I need to get a hat.
--Currently in the middle of a massive fantasy draft. It's done through Fangraphs, which has a new fantasy game this year, and luckily there is a pause function. League has 12 teams and 40 roster spots per team, which if you're counting at home, is a lot of draft. Hopefully we can get that done on Sunday. I'm enjoying living out my fantasy of being a GM.
--As awesome as it is that baseball games are being played, I have a hard time getting caught up in spring stats because it's such a small sample size. And players are facing guys who won't be in the major leagues much of the time. I know this isn't a new concept. I'll be glad when I'm down there watching games in person.
--If you haven't caught on yet, I'll be heading to Sarasota, Florida in a week to take in some sun, beach, beer, and baseball. The plan is to attend at least one Orioles game, a Pirates game, and a Phillies game cuz they have a nice new stadium and amazing cheesesteaks. As you might imagine, I'm very excited.
That's all for now. Time to get ready for the Cincy/ND game.
Monday, February 28, 2011
The Reds Performance in 2011
One of the best and worst parts of the month and a half leading up to the regular season is the endless stream of preseason outlooks and predictions. I mean, everyone has to do it, but so many of them aren't worth reading and most of the time we will inevitably (1) forget they even existed once the season starts, or (2) realize how silly it is to try and predict the goings on of a baseball season.
However, one series that certainly IS worth reading is this 30-part Question of the Day bit that Rob Neyer is doing over at SB Nation. Today he addresses the Reds, though it's funny because the actual question doesn't seem to have much to do with the majority of the post, but of course that doesn't really matter.*
*The question is about baseball fans in Ohio and he points out that both the Reds and Indians have had successful seasons recently but didn't seem to perform as well in attendance as one would have expected.
Neyer brings up many points that have been discussed over at Redleg Nation and have been thought by me at some time or another (and who knows, maybe I even wrote them down in previous posts... I don't really remember). He basically covers the two key issues...
So to recap, (1) we can't count on the Reds offense performing as well as it did last year, and (2) the Reds have a deep rotation with a handful of middle of the rotation guys but no ace, yet.*
*I of course recommend reading the whole thing. One commenter - I think he writes for the Red Reporter - does point out that PECOTA is by far the most pessimistic projection for the Reds in particular.
And that's basically it. Listen, the Reds have a good team, and I think it's pretty cool that we're arguing to what degree the Reds will be above .500 instead of is this the year they finally have a winning record. It's a nice discussion to have.
But the bottom line is, the Reds need an ace, and yes they have a very deep staff, but they are gambling that one will emerge internally. And they were content to stand pat on offense with no significant upgrades at the two opportunity positions.
All the forecasts are really saying the same thing, with different levels of optimism. My prediction? I'm excited for the year, I love this Reds team, and it should be a great race in the Central.
However, one series that certainly IS worth reading is this 30-part Question of the Day bit that Rob Neyer is doing over at SB Nation. Today he addresses the Reds, though it's funny because the actual question doesn't seem to have much to do with the majority of the post, but of course that doesn't really matter.*
*The question is about baseball fans in Ohio and he points out that both the Reds and Indians have had successful seasons recently but didn't seem to perform as well in attendance as one would have expected.
Neyer brings up many points that have been discussed over at Redleg Nation and have been thought by me at some time or another (and who knows, maybe I even wrote them down in previous posts... I don't really remember). He basically covers the two key issues...
The Reds are highly unlikely to lead the league in scoring again. Among the 13 Reds who totaled at least 100 plate appearances, Orlando Cabrera was the only one who had a bad year at the plate. Everyone else was either adequate, good, or great. Cincinnati's catchers, mostly Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan ranked second in the league in RBI, third in OPS. Scott Rolen stayed reasonably healthy and added to his Hall of Fame resume. Joey Votto, you know about.
This should still be a good hitting team. But perhaps not a great one.
...
I haven't looked at the underlying projections, but I will guess the Reds project to 84 wins because their hitting is expected to regress and their pitching isn't expected to improve at all.
I'm not going to argue with PECOTA. I don't know which of these fellows will be a Cy Young candidate, either. And if the Reds can't figure out an answer, it might be a long season.
So to recap, (1) we can't count on the Reds offense performing as well as it did last year, and (2) the Reds have a deep rotation with a handful of middle of the rotation guys but no ace, yet.*
*I of course recommend reading the whole thing. One commenter - I think he writes for the Red Reporter - does point out that PECOTA is by far the most pessimistic projection for the Reds in particular.
And that's basically it. Listen, the Reds have a good team, and I think it's pretty cool that we're arguing to what degree the Reds will be above .500 instead of is this the year they finally have a winning record. It's a nice discussion to have.
But the bottom line is, the Reds need an ace, and yes they have a very deep staff, but they are gambling that one will emerge internally. And they were content to stand pat on offense with no significant upgrades at the two opportunity positions.
All the forecasts are really saying the same thing, with different levels of optimism. My prediction? I'm excited for the year, I love this Reds team, and it should be a great race in the Central.
The Oscars
Dammit. Ok, from here on out, I promise to stop making promises about the next time I'm going post. After all, actions speak louder than words.
There are a couple things rolling around in the ol' noggin that will likely inspire a random smattering of words, and I'll start with the Oscars, though this is sure to get lost among all the posts submitted by everyone and his/her brother about last night's Oscars.
For me this year was a bit different. For (1) I've actually seen several of the films nominated for best picture. And (2), I made a concerted effort to watch the show. Well actually it wasn't necessarily my concerted effort... my girlfriend's uncle hosted a gathering, which was a lot of fun.
Three of the four I've seen (The Social Network, Black Swan, The King's Speech) I LOVED. The fourth, Inception, was fine, but with all the pre-release hype I just didn't find myself blown away. I remember telling Zach that it just tied up too nicely for me. Anyway, the effects were still great so I have no qualms with it winning those types of awards.
Those first three though. Man, I think I could watch them again and again and again. I don't remember the last time I watched multiple movies that came out within a relatively short amount of time that I enjoyed that much. The 8 or so minutes of the actual King's speech were gripping, and I think it was pretty telling that during the introduction to the best picture category it was used as a back drop. Obviously there are six movies I didn't see, but I must say I think the right picture won.
Though I must say, at the last minute I found myself rooting for The Social Network. It was just such an incredible movie that kind of came out of nowhere. A movie about facebook winning best picture? How ludicrous! But it was not unworthy. The writing is great, the story is great (even if most of it isn't true and was merely played up for Hollywood), and Jesse Eisenberg is quickly becoming one of my favorite people to watch. I don't buy many movies but I'm pretty certain this one will be gracing my bookshelf.
I still want to see The Kids Are Alright and Toy Story 3. Erin said Winter's Bone and The Fighter were good, but I don't expect to be seeking those out any time soon. And I'm not watching James Franco cut his own arm off.
Speaking of, did he do anything last night? His biggest contribution seemed to be standing next to a pretty girl while trying not to look high as a kite. I wonder if while the two of them were rehearsing for this thing it became painfully clear that Anne Hathaway would be carrying the show. I mean that's what happened, right? As if she needed another marketable skill.
There are a couple things rolling around in the ol' noggin that will likely inspire a random smattering of words, and I'll start with the Oscars, though this is sure to get lost among all the posts submitted by everyone and his/her brother about last night's Oscars.
For me this year was a bit different. For (1) I've actually seen several of the films nominated for best picture. And (2), I made a concerted effort to watch the show. Well actually it wasn't necessarily my concerted effort... my girlfriend's uncle hosted a gathering, which was a lot of fun.
Three of the four I've seen (The Social Network, Black Swan, The King's Speech) I LOVED. The fourth, Inception, was fine, but with all the pre-release hype I just didn't find myself blown away. I remember telling Zach that it just tied up too nicely for me. Anyway, the effects were still great so I have no qualms with it winning those types of awards.
Those first three though. Man, I think I could watch them again and again and again. I don't remember the last time I watched multiple movies that came out within a relatively short amount of time that I enjoyed that much. The 8 or so minutes of the actual King's speech were gripping, and I think it was pretty telling that during the introduction to the best picture category it was used as a back drop. Obviously there are six movies I didn't see, but I must say I think the right picture won.
Though I must say, at the last minute I found myself rooting for The Social Network. It was just such an incredible movie that kind of came out of nowhere. A movie about facebook winning best picture? How ludicrous! But it was not unworthy. The writing is great, the story is great (even if most of it isn't true and was merely played up for Hollywood), and Jesse Eisenberg is quickly becoming one of my favorite people to watch. I don't buy many movies but I'm pretty certain this one will be gracing my bookshelf.
I still want to see The Kids Are Alright and Toy Story 3. Erin said Winter's Bone and The Fighter were good, but I don't expect to be seeking those out any time soon. And I'm not watching James Franco cut his own arm off.
Speaking of, did he do anything last night? His biggest contribution seemed to be standing next to a pretty girl while trying not to look high as a kite. I wonder if while the two of them were rehearsing for this thing it became painfully clear that Anne Hathaway would be carrying the show. I mean that's what happened, right? As if she needed another marketable skill.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Reds 2011 Projections (Offense/Defense)
Welcome. A week later I am getting to what I promised: Reds 2011 Projections.
First, some background. As I mentioned before, FanGraphs is an awesome website. One of its particularly awesome features that I am utilizing in this post is fan generated player projections. Here's how it works...
(1) Select a number of dropdowns
(2) Submit
Here we have Joey Votto, probably the funnest player for Reds fans to project. You can see my entries above. A few notes...
Lots of things going on here. First off, it's interesting seeing where everyone lands from a traditional stat perspective. From a Wins Above Replacement standpoint there are some things to note as well. Let's go through them (I'm in a bullet sort of mood for this post, apparently)...
I'll let you gander at the rest. There's only so much to pre-address and to be honest I started this post last night and mostly just want to get it out there.
Bottom line? According to my entries, the Reds offense (and defense) figures to produce 26.8 WAR in 2011. A decent figure. Just to give you an idea, the 2010 offense (and defense) produced 33.3 WAR, best in baseball (the Reds actually underperformed their WAR in 2010, but that's a topic for another post). This included well over 4 wins that can be attributed to the defense, which was 4th best in baseball. My projections were conservative on defense because the trustworthiness of such metrics are still up for debate, so there is definitely potential for the Reds to outperform my projections in that area.
Since this post got be pretty long (and time consuming), I've decided to separate the pitching projections into another post. Expect that out in the near future, where I will also talk about the projected WAR for the entire team and what it means as far as expected win total. For now, take some time to digest, go visit fangraphs.com, and feel free to comment with any thoughts or suggestions you may have.
First, some background. As I mentioned before, FanGraphs is an awesome website. One of its particularly awesome features that I am utilizing in this post is fan generated player projections. Here's how it works...
(1) Select a number of dropdowns
(2) Submit
It's that simple. Let's take a look at an example (click on the image for a larger view):
Here we have Joey Votto, probably the funnest player for Reds fans to project. You can see my entries above. A few notes...
- Most entries are actually ranges. This certainly allows for some wiggle room, and makes it more feasible that casual fans are predicting very specific stats for players they may or may not know very well.
- FanGraphs gives you the player's stats for the last several years, making it much easier to have an entry for say, Strikeout %, something no fan keeps track of (though of course our idea of how high or low it should be is influenced by what we see from the player with our eyes).
- This is still an inexact science. They ask for batting order, which for Votto is easy, but what about Brandon Phillips. Will he bat 2nd most often, or 6th? Well, it's impossible to know, so you make your best guess and go with it.
With all that being said, without further ado, let's take a look at my 2011 offensive projections (ordered by WAR, descending)...
Lots of things going on here. First off, it's interesting seeing where everyone lands from a traditional stat perspective. From a Wins Above Replacement standpoint there are some things to note as well. Let's go through them (I'm in a bullet sort of mood for this post, apparently)...
- Not surprisingly, Votto ends up with the most WAR, and I think his numbers look reasonable, to me. I have his HR total going down slightly, just because I don't see Votto as a pure power hitter, and in general, his 2010 season was so sensational that I think some regression to the mean is in order. I do think he can sustain an OBP at or above .400.
- Stubbs nets as many WAR as Bruce, likely because of his baserunning. Again, this is based on a series of guesses (made by me) and assumptions (made by FanGraphs). If you ask me straight up, whose OBP will be higher in 2011, Stubbs or Bruce, I would say Bruce. But I have looked over my entries several times and both look reasonable to me for AB, Walk %, etc, and the results are what they are.
That being said, these are two young players that I think have as much uncertainty surrounding them as any Red in the lineup. Any Reds fan knows what Bruce is capable of, but when it's coming and to what degree is anyone's guess. Bruce could hit 40 homeruns next year. He could hit .300. But I'm not basing my projections on that possibility. Stubbs also has great potential. If he cuts down the strikeouts a bit and keeps the power and speed, watch out.
- There's an Oakland A's blog called Baseballin' On A Budget that did a similar exercise in December. He gives a few caveats that also apply here. One, as I said before, is that it's really hard to predict this stuff, so for the most part I tried to stay fairly conservative. Two is that it becomes difficult to get the total number of ABs and innings pitched exactly correct. With my current results, I have over 5300 ABs for the season... probably a little high. Innings-wise I'm just over 1300, which is probably a little low. OK, because I'm sure there are several fringe guys that will end up pitching a handful of innings that I didn't capture here because they're in AAA or something of the sort (and will likely be at or around replacement level).
I'll let you gander at the rest. There's only so much to pre-address and to be honest I started this post last night and mostly just want to get it out there.
Bottom line? According to my entries, the Reds offense (and defense) figures to produce 26.8 WAR in 2011. A decent figure. Just to give you an idea, the 2010 offense (and defense) produced 33.3 WAR, best in baseball (the Reds actually underperformed their WAR in 2010, but that's a topic for another post). This included well over 4 wins that can be attributed to the defense, which was 4th best in baseball. My projections were conservative on defense because the trustworthiness of such metrics are still up for debate, so there is definitely potential for the Reds to outperform my projections in that area.
Since this post got be pretty long (and time consuming), I've decided to separate the pitching projections into another post. Expect that out in the near future, where I will also talk about the projected WAR for the entire team and what it means as far as expected win total. For now, take some time to digest, go visit fangraphs.com, and feel free to comment with any thoughts or suggestions you may have.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
January Update
As I'm guessing lots of people can tell you, keeping up a blog when you know there aren't many people reading it can be hard. Especially a baseball blog in the middle of winter. I find myself more often at Redleg Nation responding to one of Chad's posts, where I know people will actually read what I write. But anyways, the point is that if this is ever something that will develop, I need to do it consistently, whether people are reading or not, because it's about the practice and the experience (thanks for the advice Rob!).
So, since I wanted to get something down yesterday but ran out of time, I decided to give the blog a quick make over instead. As you can see there's a new background and color scheme. I think it gives it a more open and airy feel, like you might actually be at a ballpark watching a game instead of staring at the inside of some random Reds fan's boring computer. I did miss the red though so I added a border and a familiar friend at the top, though I'm not sure it lines up perfectly on all computers, and I don't know if I can move the title over a little to prevent it from overlapping (ah well).
Anyways, I would like to advertise for an upcoming post involving fan projections done on the fantastic website, fangraphs. If you're a baseball fan and you've never been there, I highly recommend it. The amount of information available is mind bottling. And if you're a stat-minded fan, well, you may have to change your pants. There they allow every fan to enter projections for each player. They actually do it in a very interesting way and I'm obviously not really sure about all the assumptions they make, but it's very cool, and after you enter all your inputs, they will even calculate a WAR for each player (that's Wins Above Replacement - more details are available at fangraphs).
Point is, I've done a set of projections for the Reds, and I'd like to go over the results. As you might imagine, it's hard to tell how trustworthy any of this is considering I'm guessing how baseball players will perform (an impossibly hard task), and I'm doing it for the team I love, so clearly I'm not unbiased. But I tried to be as fair as possible.
So, until that is made available, please spend all of your time at the sites linked above. Thanks.
So, since I wanted to get something down yesterday but ran out of time, I decided to give the blog a quick make over instead. As you can see there's a new background and color scheme. I think it gives it a more open and airy feel, like you might actually be at a ballpark watching a game instead of staring at the inside of some random Reds fan's boring computer. I did miss the red though so I added a border and a familiar friend at the top, though I'm not sure it lines up perfectly on all computers, and I don't know if I can move the title over a little to prevent it from overlapping (ah well).
Anyways, I would like to advertise for an upcoming post involving fan projections done on the fantastic website, fangraphs. If you're a baseball fan and you've never been there, I highly recommend it. The amount of information available is mind bottling. And if you're a stat-minded fan, well, you may have to change your pants. There they allow every fan to enter projections for each player. They actually do it in a very interesting way and I'm obviously not really sure about all the assumptions they make, but it's very cool, and after you enter all your inputs, they will even calculate a WAR for each player (that's Wins Above Replacement - more details are available at fangraphs).
Point is, I've done a set of projections for the Reds, and I'd like to go over the results. As you might imagine, it's hard to tell how trustworthy any of this is considering I'm guessing how baseball players will perform (an impossibly hard task), and I'm doing it for the team I love, so clearly I'm not unbiased. But I tried to be as fair as possible.
So, until that is made available, please spend all of your time at the sites linked above. Thanks.
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