Bruce a Red long term

So Jay Bruce just signed a 6 year, $51 million contract with the Reds (with an club option for a seventh year), which is great news.  For all the talk of signing Votto long term, I think Bruce was the more important contract to get done, as he is 3 years younger than Votto and will be much less expensive at this point.  I would also argue that Bruce's ceiling is a little higher, as he is a former #1 prospect (in all of baseball) and plays a more premium position (and plays it very well).

This deal could take Bruce through his age 30 season, clearly encompassing his peak yers but not taking on the risk of something like a 10 year contract.  I think it's pretty ideal.  The money is very reasonable too.  A commenter on Redleg Nation conservatively estimated that Bruce would have gotten $30M in arbitration over the next 4 years, leaving around $21M for the remaining two years on the contract.  Clearly a bargain. 

Bruce was a 5+ WAR player last year when he really only began tapping into his offensive potential during the second half of the season.  If he puts up 5 wins above replacement in his age 27 season, assuming only a 5% increase in the value of a win each year, he'd be worth around $29M for that year alone.  Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, but it's kind of fun speculating what the Reds could be getting out of their star right fielder for years to come.

It's great news for Reds fans, and hopefully a great sign of things to come.  Jocketty's recent signings of Cairo and Arroyo (don't get me wrong, I like Arroyo, but 3 years seems a bit unnecessary) had me a bit worried, but no one can argue with this one.  And now I'm that much more excited to get that Bruce jersey I'm hoping to see under the tree this year.

2 Random Thoughts

• So I've already stated my new lease on (blog) life.  However, I also wanted to mention that I was severely off base in a post made earlier this year titled "About this blog".  I stated that there must not be a notable Reds blog, especially one with a "sabermetric focus", if the Reds' spot on Rob Neyer's Sweet Spot network wasn't yet filled.
  
  
  Well, as I should have known, of course there are Reds blogs, lots of them, and lots of good ones.  And that spot has since been filled by Redleg Nation, which is a fantastic blog that I now check every day.  And on top of that, they are actually very sabermetric friendly over there.  So, I'm not saying that anyone noticed, but I wanted to right that wrong.

• On the way home earlier this week I listened to ESPN's radio affiliate in Chicago interview the newest White Sox player, and former Red, Adam Dunn.  The guy is still a great interview and was a great player for the Reds and it's a shame the perception many in Cincinnati had of him.  I know it's been said plenty of times but his style, both on and off the field, was misunderstood and when he left the Reds definitely missed him.
  
  I was hoping to have some stats prepared to show just how valuable he was to those Reds teams, but I mostly just wanted to get this down (and it's not like you can't look the stats up yourself!).  Anyways, I will definitely be following him up here in Chicago and wish him the best.

Who's in Left?

It’s not news that the Reds’ most glaring need is in left field.  Despite Walt Jocketty’s comments (and, from what I’ve heard, the feelings of many Reds fans), Jonny Gomes did not perform adequately in 2010.  His 104 OPS+ is acceptable, though his .330 wOBA isn’t impressive, and it’s pretty clear his defense is abominable.  Gomes cost the Reds around 16 runs with his defense in 2010 (more than a win and a half).  Both fWAR and sWAR have him slightly below zero.  This is not someone who the Reds want manning left field for another 130 games.

Some of the online community would prefer Chris Heisey get a majority of the playing time.  And given no alternative, I agree.  As a rookie Heisey performed admirably.  His OPS+ and wOBA were similar to Gomes’ (103 and .328), but the difference is Heisey is a 25 year old rookie, and Gomes just turned 30.  The real difference though, is the defense.  Where Gomes was deficient, Heisey excelled, registering 5.6 runs above replacement in only 429 innings, according to Fangraphs.  Heisey is young and still developing, but it would seem that if the Reds don’t acquire anyone else, Heisey should get more of the playing time with Gomes certainly chiming in, as he does provide some production and can lesson the weight of full time duty.

The interesting part, however, is thinking about who the Reds could get to patrol the outfield with Bruce and Stubbs.  I’ll run down a list of names I’ve heard…

Shin-Soo Choo

I can’t imagine the Indians giving up Choo very easily.  He’s just entering his first year of arbitration, so his salary will remain reasonable for a few more years.  And he’s been a very good player, registering over 5 wins above replacement the last two years, with adequate defense.  He’d be near the top of my list.

Jacoby Ellsbury

Ellsbury is a bit of a conundrum.  He was a vital cog in the Red Sox plans a few years ago, and stole 120 bases at an outstanding rate during 08 and 09.  But 2010 was mostly lost to injury, and now the rumors are the Red Sox are thinking of moving him.  A closer look at Ellsbury’s defensive numbers over his two full years proves a bit odd.  In 08 Ellsbury started 129 games, about half of which were in center, and had an outstanding 21.3 UZR – second best among all outfielders.  2009 was a different story.  In 150 starts, all in center, Ellsbury cost the Red Sox almost 10 runs (a full win).  Where should he really be?  I don’t know, probably somewhere in the middle, and probably closer to 08, but we won’t really know until he plays full time again.  His offensive numbers did improve from 08 to 09, so in both years he was a very serviceable player.

Brett Gardner

I maintain that Gardner doesn’t move unless the Yanks get Crawford, which does have a decent likelihood of happening.  If Gardner becomes available, he’s at the top of my list along with Choo.  Gardner became a full time player for the first time in 2010 (at the age of 26) and responded with an outstanding year.  A .383 OBP, a .358 wOBA, a 47/9 stolen base ratio, and the best outfield defense in baseball according to UZR (spent mostly in left).

B.J. Upton

Upton had a couple great years, at ages 22 and 23.  In the two years since, the continued improvement the Rays had hoped to see hasn’t come, as reflected in Upton’s wOBA starting in 07 (.387, .354, .310, .337).  Upton’s defense saved him in 2009 – he ended up with 2.2 wins above replacement – and though he bounced back a bit offensively in 2010, his defense relapsed, going from 7.7 and 6.6 runs above replacement in the years prior, to 0.2.  We could probably expect a bounce back defensively in 2011.  Ultimately, Upton provides value, and at age 26 he still has room for improvement, despite a couple disappointing years.  Upton was also paid $3M last year and is arbitration eligible the next two years.  I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Reds took a chance with him, but he certainly isn’t my first choice.

Josh Willingham

Willingham didn’t get a shot in the bigs until he was 26, but he’s hit in every season, pretty consistently too.  Last year was his best year in many accounts.  His defense leaves a little to be desired, but overall he performs.  He’ll be 32 next year and will probably see a bit of a raise in his third year of arbitration (he made $4.6M last year).  You likely know what you’re going to get with Willingham.  He might provide a bit of power, not a whole lot of defense, and he isn’t necessarily coming at a bargain, but you could certainly do worse.

Chris Young

Young may have turned a corner in 2010 at the age of 26.  But we can’t know for sure, and his defense has not been impressive until this year either.  Considering he’s getting $20.5M over the next three years, it seems a bit of a gamble.

So there you have it, a mini rundown of a few randomly selected LFers that the Reds may or may not be interested in.  If I were to rank my favorites I’d probably go…

Choo

Gardner

Ellsbury

Willingham

Upton

Young

I guess we’ll see what happens.

Zack Greinke a Red?

Supposedly it's very possible that Zack Greinke gets traded before the start of the 2011 season.  The Rangers and Blue Jays appear to be the two teams that have shown interest so far, though it is fully expected that other teams get into this race and the Royals are by no means rushing into anything.  The Reds of course have also been linked, though so far Jocketty says they have not talked to anyone about it.

In the Winter Meetings live chat on ESPN Keith Law was asked if the Reds could be potential suiters.  His response, though purely speculation, was yes, and that he thought the Reds would be a great fit, as they are looking for a front line starter and have plenty of young talent to offer.  His suggestion was Mesoraco, Alonso, and Wood.  I've definitely seen those names thrown around in potential trade talks on the internets, so it seems to me the Reds could be willing to part with them.

My thoughts?  I don't know... I have trouble comparing current value to future value.  It sure would be neat to have a guy like Greinke though.

A New Beginning... Again

So call this try #3 at creating a consistently producing blog.  I have a new strategy this time.  Post short and post often.  Of course, not everything will be brief (few things I write are), but I think that the smaller my expectations are for a single post, the more likely it is to be realized.

With that said, I will begin my new lease on (blog) life today and attempt to put out material AT LEAST 3 days a week.  Even if it's my random thoughts on some minor off season move.

Enjoy.