Much ado about nothing...

So this is a post about how nothing is happening.  Seriously, there is really no Reds news to talk about, other than rumors and Jay Bruce's contract becoming reality.  Which of course is nothing to wag your finger at (did I say that right?).

But at this point that's probably the best news for Reds fans.  We don't need a GM who is going out making foolish moves just to do something.  We need a GM who is patient and waits for the right opportunity.  Who doesn't give up an ML guy and 2 top end prospects to land an ace who has had one excellent year.

I can honestly say that I've never been more interested in the Reds than I am right now.  That I've never followed off season baseball in the way that I am this year.  Football seems so secondary at the moment (probably being helped by the fact that the Bengals are an embarrassment).

Signing Bruce was the best thing that could have happened this off season.  I have mentioned being annoyed at WJ for not really doing anything and insisting that "our team is good" and that the young players will continue to improve.

That is probably true, but there are certainly other things to consider.  Will Janish hit like he did playing full time?  Will Cairo have another career year as a bench guy?  Will Rolen be able to be a viable clean up hitter (was he even last year)?  Will Arroyo win 17 games again?

These are all things that went exceptionally well last year that the Reds can't really count on happening again.  Yes, we have a lot of young players, especially on the pitching staff, who could be expected to improve.  And should everything go well, the Reds could have 3 or 4 top of the line starters.  But that's certainly far from a given, and considering everything that went right for the Reds last year, they'll need more than just a few improvements.  I mean, Joey Votto won't be beating out Albert Pujols for best player in the NL every year.

The Reds excelled in a number of things last year.  Two of the bigger ones, were bench play, and starting pitching depth.  As great as these things are, THEY DO NOT WIN A PLAYOFF SERIES.  Teams can get by with 3 starters in the DS.  Pitching depth does nothing there.  And while a good pinch hitter is helpful, I'd rather have another star than 3 good bench guys.

This has been an interesting off season and it's been so long since the Reds were defending division champs that I don't really know how it feels.  So far it's been nice, but it may be foolish to assume that the Reds can coast and still be contenders.  I am looking forward to that one big deal that gives the Reds that slight edge.  And I have faith that WJ will know just when to make it.

Bruce a Red long term

So Jay Bruce just signed a 6 year, $51 million contract with the Reds (with an club option for a seventh year), which is great news.  For all the talk of signing Votto long term, I think Bruce was the more important contract to get done, as he is 3 years younger than Votto and will be much less expensive at this point.  I would also argue that Bruce's ceiling is a little higher, as he is a former #1 prospect (in all of baseball) and plays a more premium position (and plays it very well).

This deal could take Bruce through his age 30 season, clearly encompassing his peak yers but not taking on the risk of something like a 10 year contract.  I think it's pretty ideal.  The money is very reasonable too.  A commenter on Redleg Nation conservatively estimated that Bruce would have gotten $30M in arbitration over the next 4 years, leaving around $21M for the remaining two years on the contract.  Clearly a bargain. 

Bruce was a 5+ WAR player last year when he really only began tapping into his offensive potential during the second half of the season.  If he puts up 5 wins above replacement in his age 27 season, assuming only a 5% increase in the value of a win each year, he'd be worth around $29M for that year alone.  Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, but it's kind of fun speculating what the Reds could be getting out of their star right fielder for years to come.

It's great news for Reds fans, and hopefully a great sign of things to come.  Jocketty's recent signings of Cairo and Arroyo (don't get me wrong, I like Arroyo, but 3 years seems a bit unnecessary) had me a bit worried, but no one can argue with this one.  And now I'm that much more excited to get that Bruce jersey I'm hoping to see under the tree this year.

2 Random Thoughts

• So I've already stated my new lease on (blog) life.  However, I also wanted to mention that I was severely off base in a post made earlier this year titled "About this blog".  I stated that there must not be a notable Reds blog, especially one with a "sabermetric focus", if the Reds' spot on Rob Neyer's Sweet Spot network wasn't yet filled.
  
  
  Well, as I should have known, of course there are Reds blogs, lots of them, and lots of good ones.  And that spot has since been filled by Redleg Nation, which is a fantastic blog that I now check every day.  And on top of that, they are actually very sabermetric friendly over there.  So, I'm not saying that anyone noticed, but I wanted to right that wrong.

• On the way home earlier this week I listened to ESPN's radio affiliate in Chicago interview the newest White Sox player, and former Red, Adam Dunn.  The guy is still a great interview and was a great player for the Reds and it's a shame the perception many in Cincinnati had of him.  I know it's been said plenty of times but his style, both on and off the field, was misunderstood and when he left the Reds definitely missed him.
  
  I was hoping to have some stats prepared to show just how valuable he was to those Reds teams, but I mostly just wanted to get this down (and it's not like you can't look the stats up yourself!).  Anyways, I will definitely be following him up here in Chicago and wish him the best.

Who's in Left?

It’s not news that the Reds’ most glaring need is in left field.  Despite Walt Jocketty’s comments (and, from what I’ve heard, the feelings of many Reds fans), Jonny Gomes did not perform adequately in 2010.  His 104 OPS+ is acceptable, though his .330 wOBA isn’t impressive, and it’s pretty clear his defense is abominable.  Gomes cost the Reds around 16 runs with his defense in 2010 (more than a win and a half).  Both fWAR and sWAR have him slightly below zero.  This is not someone who the Reds want manning left field for another 130 games.

Some of the online community would prefer Chris Heisey get a majority of the playing time.  And given no alternative, I agree.  As a rookie Heisey performed admirably.  His OPS+ and wOBA were similar to Gomes’ (103 and .328), but the difference is Heisey is a 25 year old rookie, and Gomes just turned 30.  The real difference though, is the defense.  Where Gomes was deficient, Heisey excelled, registering 5.6 runs above replacement in only 429 innings, according to Fangraphs.  Heisey is young and still developing, but it would seem that if the Reds don’t acquire anyone else, Heisey should get more of the playing time with Gomes certainly chiming in, as he does provide some production and can lesson the weight of full time duty.

The interesting part, however, is thinking about who the Reds could get to patrol the outfield with Bruce and Stubbs.  I’ll run down a list of names I’ve heard…

Shin-Soo Choo

I can’t imagine the Indians giving up Choo very easily.  He’s just entering his first year of arbitration, so his salary will remain reasonable for a few more years.  And he’s been a very good player, registering over 5 wins above replacement the last two years, with adequate defense.  He’d be near the top of my list.

Jacoby Ellsbury

Ellsbury is a bit of a conundrum.  He was a vital cog in the Red Sox plans a few years ago, and stole 120 bases at an outstanding rate during 08 and 09.  But 2010 was mostly lost to injury, and now the rumors are the Red Sox are thinking of moving him.  A closer look at Ellsbury’s defensive numbers over his two full years proves a bit odd.  In 08 Ellsbury started 129 games, about half of which were in center, and had an outstanding 21.3 UZR – second best among all outfielders.  2009 was a different story.  In 150 starts, all in center, Ellsbury cost the Red Sox almost 10 runs (a full win).  Where should he really be?  I don’t know, probably somewhere in the middle, and probably closer to 08, but we won’t really know until he plays full time again.  His offensive numbers did improve from 08 to 09, so in both years he was a very serviceable player.

Brett Gardner

I maintain that Gardner doesn’t move unless the Yanks get Crawford, which does have a decent likelihood of happening.  If Gardner becomes available, he’s at the top of my list along with Choo.  Gardner became a full time player for the first time in 2010 (at the age of 26) and responded with an outstanding year.  A .383 OBP, a .358 wOBA, a 47/9 stolen base ratio, and the best outfield defense in baseball according to UZR (spent mostly in left).

B.J. Upton

Upton had a couple great years, at ages 22 and 23.  In the two years since, the continued improvement the Rays had hoped to see hasn’t come, as reflected in Upton’s wOBA starting in 07 (.387, .354, .310, .337).  Upton’s defense saved him in 2009 – he ended up with 2.2 wins above replacement – and though he bounced back a bit offensively in 2010, his defense relapsed, going from 7.7 and 6.6 runs above replacement in the years prior, to 0.2.  We could probably expect a bounce back defensively in 2011.  Ultimately, Upton provides value, and at age 26 he still has room for improvement, despite a couple disappointing years.  Upton was also paid $3M last year and is arbitration eligible the next two years.  I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Reds took a chance with him, but he certainly isn’t my first choice.

Josh Willingham

Willingham didn’t get a shot in the bigs until he was 26, but he’s hit in every season, pretty consistently too.  Last year was his best year in many accounts.  His defense leaves a little to be desired, but overall he performs.  He’ll be 32 next year and will probably see a bit of a raise in his third year of arbitration (he made $4.6M last year).  You likely know what you’re going to get with Willingham.  He might provide a bit of power, not a whole lot of defense, and he isn’t necessarily coming at a bargain, but you could certainly do worse.

Chris Young

Young may have turned a corner in 2010 at the age of 26.  But we can’t know for sure, and his defense has not been impressive until this year either.  Considering he’s getting $20.5M over the next three years, it seems a bit of a gamble.

So there you have it, a mini rundown of a few randomly selected LFers that the Reds may or may not be interested in.  If I were to rank my favorites I’d probably go…

Choo

Gardner

Ellsbury

Willingham

Upton

Young

I guess we’ll see what happens.

Zack Greinke a Red?

Supposedly it's very possible that Zack Greinke gets traded before the start of the 2011 season.  The Rangers and Blue Jays appear to be the two teams that have shown interest so far, though it is fully expected that other teams get into this race and the Royals are by no means rushing into anything.  The Reds of course have also been linked, though so far Jocketty says they have not talked to anyone about it.

In the Winter Meetings live chat on ESPN Keith Law was asked if the Reds could be potential suiters.  His response, though purely speculation, was yes, and that he thought the Reds would be a great fit, as they are looking for a front line starter and have plenty of young talent to offer.  His suggestion was Mesoraco, Alonso, and Wood.  I've definitely seen those names thrown around in potential trade talks on the internets, so it seems to me the Reds could be willing to part with them.

My thoughts?  I don't know... I have trouble comparing current value to future value.  It sure would be neat to have a guy like Greinke though.

A New Beginning... Again

So call this try #3 at creating a consistently producing blog.  I have a new strategy this time.  Post short and post often.  Of course, not everything will be brief (few things I write are), but I think that the smaller my expectations are for a single post, the more likely it is to be realized.

With that said, I will begin my new lease on (blog) life today and attempt to put out material AT LEAST 3 days a week.  Even if it's my random thoughts on some minor off season move.

Enjoy.

About this blog

Maybe not surprisingly, the earliest Reds moment I can distinctly remember watching, and can still play back in my memory today, occurred on October 20th, 1990 in the foul territory just next to first base. Todd Benzinger, not even the Reds regular first basemen (maybe he came in for defensive purposes) caught a harmless pop foul to complete a 4 game sweep of the mighty Oakland A's. I still have the Wheaties box with that Reds team on it. A "Wire to Wire" tshirt still inhabits my tshirt drawer. And just as many other lifelong baseball fans can point to a moment when their love of the game first began, I was hooked.

I could make the claim that my first academic memory came when I competed in the district math bees during my elementary years. Top 5 finishes in 1st and 2nd grade set the stage. You know those blurbs you sometimes see in magazines where they ask some professional athlete when they knew they could be something special? Well for me it wasn't athletics, but rather mathematics, and that moment occurred when I took home the gold in 3rd grade. Of course the very next year I tumbled out of the top 20, which made me worry I'd peaked early.

As with most things, I was a bit late to the Moneyball party. But when I finally got around to reading the book, I was into it. Since then I've developed and even deeper interest in the game, and guys like Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski (and many others) keep my interest piqued by writing (and talking, and talking about others' writing) about how the game is constantly evolving, and how the way we view it is ever changing.

So, I'll stop rambling on with lame backstory and say that I love baseball, probably more than ever before. And for someone who is also a numbers nerd, the "statistical revolution" of the last decade has been a lot of fun. Rob Neyer has his own blog on ESPN and this spring they have started a "blog network", with the ultimate goal to have an associated blog for every major league team. When I first heard about this endeavor I was excited since I had been unable to really find much of a Reds blog. Well as it turns out, I don't really think there is one, and certainly not one that has any sort of sabermetric focus (whatever that means exactly).

I'm not saying that my link will be on ESPN any time soon, but hey, why not take a negative (no Reds blog) and make it a positive (limited competition for beginner Reds bloggers). So that's what I've decided to do. You can see that I've taken two cracks at it already, and certainly there's a lot to learn. For instance, I went into that Brandon Phillips post ready to argue with anyone who thought Phillips should bat any higher than 5th in the lineup. After looking at some numbers though, I realized that the Reds really don't have any good top of the lineup guys. The post ended relatively soon after that.

The cool thing about blogging though, is that you can essentially do whatever you want (not to mention edit and proofread as little as you want). And what I want to do is this - take my thoughts and inquiries as a Reds fan (many of which are numbers driven) and put them in writing. And maybe, someday, those thoughts might catch the attention of a Rob Neyer, or someone else in the blogosphere. Hey, he's already read one of my posts! And actually, at this point, I think he's one of four people to read anything on here.

So to those who are actually taking in these words, enjoy!

Why is Brandon Phillips batting 2nd?

Brandon Phillips has 109 plate appearances in 2010, going into Monday's games. All of them have occurred while Phillips is 2nd (27), 3rd (5), or 4th (77) in the lineup. This is a bit befuddling. Perhaps I shouldn't be befuddled, considering who manages this team. Dusty Baker has often been accused of (among other things) being too old school, ignoring cold hard stats in favor of (perceived) speed and what position a guy plays in the field. Hitting Phillips 2nd because he plays second base or is able to accumulate stolen bases over the course of the year is what managers did in decades of yore. Now we know better.

Most Reds fans know the Brandon Phillips story by now. He was dealt to Cleveland as a 20 year old prospect in 2002, along with some guys named Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee, in exchange for Bartolo Colon. Three and a half disappointing seasons later Phillips was given up on by the Indians. And understandably so. In 462 major league plate appearances Phillips had rung up an OPS+ of 48 and got caught stealing more times than he was successful. And then he was traded (or rather given) to the Reds. Joe Posnanski just wrote a post on how our expectations of a player can affect how we evaluate him. Posnanski references Royals player Alex Gordon in particular. Though he could very well contribute to his team, and potentially outhit several players currently occupying spots in the Royals lineup, he was just sent to AAA because the Royals are running out of patience.

Well it seems the oppotiste may have happened to Phillips. He immediately made an impact with the Reds in 2006, accumulating notable hits and stealing a whole bunch of bases while rarely getting caught. This from a guy who the Reds acquired for basically nobody. A guy Reds fans were told was a complete disappointment. Well we rejuvinated him! Get that man playing on the other side of the state and look what he can do! The very next year Phillips joined the 30-30 club and has gone 20-20 both years since. Add to that stellar defense and a flashy personality.

So what's the problem? Well, Phillips has an OPS+ of 97 as a Red. He's never shown much of an ability to walk nor has he posted an OBP higher than .331 (well below league average). He does steal bases nearly 75% of the time, which certain counts for something. I'm not sure where to find baserunning stats, but I wouldn't be surprised if Phillips is slightly disappointing given his speed, if only because he's been known to be a bit lackadasical.

The point is, does he belong at the top of a lineup? Probably not. However, a bigger question might be, who else do the Reds have? Despite an OBP figure of .318 this year, among qualified Reds hitters Phillips trails only Votto, Rolen, and Bruce. Are any of them leading off? Don't think so.

Last year? The only player with at least 300 ABs and a higher OBP was Votto, clearly this team's best hitter.

So maybe we can't blame Baker for throwing Phillips in the two spot. Hard to remember when offense was this team's strength.

Chris Dickerson vs Drew Stubbs

As we all know, the Reds were supposed to be dark horse contenders this year. Their core of young players, a potentially solid pitching staff, a stable bullpen and improved defense were all ingredients for a possible playoff run. Well, so far, the starters have struggled (rookie Mike Leake leads the staff with a 3.92 ERA, but carries with it 13 walks and only 13 strikeouts in just over 20 IP), and the Reds promising outfield of youngsters - Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Dickerson - all have OBPs under .300.

Jay Bruce will hit. Or at least that's what I keep reading. Concerned Reds fans should keep in mind that Bruce just turned 23 this month. He's essentially been a league average hitter at ages 21 and 22 and his power numbers improved from 2008 to 2009. Additionally, his plate discipline drastically improved as he decreased his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate, raising his BB/K ratio from 0.30 to 0.51. He's had a relatively slow start to 2010, but of course it's early.

Which is what we should remember when considering Stubbs and Dickerson. I will admit that I was a big fan of Dickerson when he showed up in '08, and felt he deserved more playing time in the beginning of '09. Of course, his .413 OBP and .304 ISO was in only 122 plate appearances. In 2009 he showed a similar ability to get on base, posting a .370 OBP and a walk rate similar to '08. However, his power disappeared and his ISO dipped below .100. In fact, after hitting 6 HRs in his first 75 major league at bats, he's hit only 2 since (317 ABs).

This lack of power shouldn't be a big surprise, however. In the minors Dickerson averaged only 14 HRs per 650 plate appearances (18 in AAA), so we wouldn't expect him to keep pace with his 2008 numbers. The bottom line is, Dickerson got a late start because his numbers in the minors aren't overwhelming. He got his first taste with the big club at age 26 and took on part-timer duties at age 27. Now 28, Dickerson has continued to show an ability to walk, get on base, and occasionally swipe a bag, while playing above average defense. At this point he's not likely to change much as a player.

Meanwhile, the jury's still out on Stubbs. At 25 he's had a rough start to the 2010 season. 2009 was a bit better, but Stubbs still registered only a .323 OBP. He hasn't had enough major league at bats to draw any conclusions, but in the minors he posted .364 OBP and a decent stolen base percentage. Combine that with a surprising flash of power last year, speed, and above average defense, and Stubbs could do well patrolling centerfield in Great American Ball Park.

Conclusion: In this case we are comparing a relatively known (Dickerson) to a relatively unknown (Stubbs). Dickerson doesn't have a ton of major league ABs either, but his numbers with the big club are pretty well in line with his performance in the minors. Neither is likely to be a star, but both could potentially be serviceable in the Reds outfield alongside Jay Bruce. 2010 should be telling as both players are set to receive significant playing time. At this point, I'd have to go with Stubbs simply because he is 3 years younger and still has some time to develop. For the Reds to contend in 2010 though, the entire outfield needs to significantly improve upon its April.