As we all know, the Reds were supposed to be dark horse contenders this year. Their core of young players, a potentially solid pitching staff, a stable bullpen and improved defense were all ingredients for a possible playoff run. Well, so far, the starters have struggled (rookie Mike Leake leads the staff with a 3.92 ERA, but carries with it 13 walks and only 13 strikeouts in just over 20 IP), and the Reds promising outfield of youngsters - Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Dickerson - all have OBPs under .300.
Jay Bruce will hit. Or at least that's what I keep reading. Concerned Reds fans should keep in mind that Bruce just turned 23 this month. He's essentially been a league average hitter at ages 21 and 22 and his power numbers improved from 2008 to 2009. Additionally, his plate discipline drastically improved as he decreased his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate, raising his BB/K ratio from 0.30 to 0.51. He's had a relatively slow start to 2010, but of course it's early.
Which is what we should remember when considering Stubbs and Dickerson. I will admit that I was a big fan of Dickerson when he showed up in '08, and felt he deserved more playing time in the beginning of '09. Of course, his .413 OBP and .304 ISO was in only 122 plate appearances. In 2009 he showed a similar ability to get on base, posting a .370 OBP and a walk rate similar to '08. However, his power disappeared and his ISO dipped below .100. In fact, after hitting 6 HRs in his first 75 major league at bats, he's hit only 2 since (317 ABs).
This lack of power shouldn't be a big surprise, however. In the minors Dickerson averaged only 14 HRs per 650 plate appearances (18 in AAA), so we wouldn't expect him to keep pace with his 2008 numbers. The bottom line is, Dickerson got a late start because his numbers in the minors aren't overwhelming. He got his first taste with the big club at age 26 and took on part-timer duties at age 27. Now 28, Dickerson has continued to show an ability to walk, get on base, and occasionally swipe a bag, while playing above average defense. At this point he's not likely to change much as a player.
Meanwhile, the jury's still out on Stubbs. At 25 he's had a rough start to the 2010 season. 2009 was a bit better, but Stubbs still registered only a .323 OBP. He hasn't had enough major league at bats to draw any conclusions, but in the minors he posted .364 OBP and a decent stolen base percentage. Combine that with a surprising flash of power last year, speed, and above average defense, and Stubbs could do well patrolling centerfield in Great American Ball Park.
Conclusion: In this case we are comparing a relatively known (Dickerson) to a relatively unknown (Stubbs). Dickerson doesn't have a ton of major league ABs either, but his numbers with the big club are pretty well in line with his performance in the minors. Neither is likely to be a star, but both could potentially be serviceable in the Reds outfield alongside Jay Bruce. 2010 should be telling as both players are set to receive significant playing time. At this point, I'd have to go with Stubbs simply because he is 3 years younger and still has some time to develop. For the Reds to contend in 2010 though, the entire outfield needs to significantly improve upon its April.
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