Brandon Phillips has 109 plate appearances in 2010, going into Monday's games. All of them have occurred while Phillips is 2nd (27), 3rd (5), or 4th (77) in the lineup. This is a bit befuddling. Perhaps I shouldn't be befuddled, considering who manages this team. Dusty Baker has often been accused of (among other things) being too old school, ignoring cold hard stats in favor of (perceived) speed and what position a guy plays in the field. Hitting Phillips 2nd because he plays second base or is able to accumulate stolen bases over the course of the year is what managers did in decades of yore. Now we know better.
Most Reds fans know the Brandon Phillips story by now. He was dealt to Cleveland as a 20 year old prospect in 2002, along with some guys named Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee, in exchange for Bartolo Colon. Three and a half disappointing seasons later Phillips was given up on by the Indians. And understandably so. In 462 major league plate appearances Phillips had rung up an OPS+ of 48 and got caught stealing more times than he was successful. And then he was traded (or rather given) to the Reds. Joe Posnanski just wrote a post on how our expectations of a player can affect how we evaluate him. Posnanski references Royals player Alex Gordon in particular. Though he could very well contribute to his team, and potentially outhit several players currently occupying spots in the Royals lineup, he was just sent to AAA because the Royals are running out of patience.
Well it seems the oppotiste may have happened to Phillips. He immediately made an impact with the Reds in 2006, accumulating notable hits and stealing a whole bunch of bases while rarely getting caught. This from a guy who the Reds acquired for basically nobody. A guy Reds fans were told was a complete disappointment. Well we rejuvinated him! Get that man playing on the other side of the state and look what he can do! The very next year Phillips joined the 30-30 club and has gone 20-20 both years since. Add to that stellar defense and a flashy personality.
So what's the problem? Well, Phillips has an OPS+ of 97 as a Red. He's never shown much of an ability to walk nor has he posted an OBP higher than .331 (well below league average). He does steal bases nearly 75% of the time, which certain counts for something. I'm not sure where to find baserunning stats, but I wouldn't be surprised if Phillips is slightly disappointing given his speed, if only because he's been known to be a bit lackadasical.
The point is, does he belong at the top of a lineup? Probably not. However, a bigger question might be, who else do the Reds have? Despite an OBP figure of .318 this year, among qualified Reds hitters Phillips trails only Votto, Rolen, and Bruce. Are any of them leading off? Don't think so.
Last year? The only player with at least 300 ABs and a higher OBP was Votto, clearly this team's best hitter.
So maybe we can't blame Baker for throwing Phillips in the two spot. Hard to remember when offense was this team's strength.
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