So Jay Bruce just signed a 6 year, $51 million contract with the Reds (with an club option for a seventh year), which is great news. For all the talk of signing Votto long term, I think Bruce was the more important contract to get done, as he is 3 years younger than Votto and will be much less expensive at this point. I would also argue that Bruce's ceiling is a little higher, as he is a former #1 prospect (in all of baseball) and plays a more premium position (and plays it very well).
This deal could take Bruce through his age 30 season, clearly encompassing his peak yers but not taking on the risk of something like a 10 year contract. I think it's pretty ideal. The money is very reasonable too. A commenter on Redleg Nation conservatively estimated that Bruce would have gotten $30M in arbitration over the next 4 years, leaving around $21M for the remaining two years on the contract. Clearly a bargain.
Bruce was a 5+ WAR player last year when he really only began tapping into his offensive potential during the second half of the season. If he puts up 5 wins above replacement in his age 27 season, assuming only a 5% increase in the value of a win each year, he'd be worth around $29M for that year alone. Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, but it's kind of fun speculating what the Reds could be getting out of their star right fielder for years to come.
It's great news for Reds fans, and hopefully a great sign of things to come. Jocketty's recent signings of Cairo and Arroyo (don't get me wrong, I like Arroyo, but 3 years seems a bit unnecessary) had me a bit worried, but no one can argue with this one. And now I'm that much more excited to get that Bruce jersey I'm hoping to see under the tree this year.
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