Who's in Left?

It’s not news that the Reds’ most glaring need is in left field.  Despite Walt Jocketty’s comments (and, from what I’ve heard, the feelings of many Reds fans), Jonny Gomes did not perform adequately in 2010.  His 104 OPS+ is acceptable, though his .330 wOBA isn’t impressive, and it’s pretty clear his defense is abominable.  Gomes cost the Reds around 16 runs with his defense in 2010 (more than a win and a half).  Both fWAR and sWAR have him slightly below zero.  This is not someone who the Reds want manning left field for another 130 games.

Some of the online community would prefer Chris Heisey get a majority of the playing time.  And given no alternative, I agree.  As a rookie Heisey performed admirably.  His OPS+ and wOBA were similar to Gomes’ (103 and .328), but the difference is Heisey is a 25 year old rookie, and Gomes just turned 30.  The real difference though, is the defense.  Where Gomes was deficient, Heisey excelled, registering 5.6 runs above replacement in only 429 innings, according to Fangraphs.  Heisey is young and still developing, but it would seem that if the Reds don’t acquire anyone else, Heisey should get more of the playing time with Gomes certainly chiming in, as he does provide some production and can lesson the weight of full time duty.

The interesting part, however, is thinking about who the Reds could get to patrol the outfield with Bruce and Stubbs.  I’ll run down a list of names I’ve heard…

Shin-Soo Choo

I can’t imagine the Indians giving up Choo very easily.  He’s just entering his first year of arbitration, so his salary will remain reasonable for a few more years.  And he’s been a very good player, registering over 5 wins above replacement the last two years, with adequate defense.  He’d be near the top of my list.

Jacoby Ellsbury

Ellsbury is a bit of a conundrum.  He was a vital cog in the Red Sox plans a few years ago, and stole 120 bases at an outstanding rate during 08 and 09.  But 2010 was mostly lost to injury, and now the rumors are the Red Sox are thinking of moving him.  A closer look at Ellsbury’s defensive numbers over his two full years proves a bit odd.  In 08 Ellsbury started 129 games, about half of which were in center, and had an outstanding 21.3 UZR – second best among all outfielders.  2009 was a different story.  In 150 starts, all in center, Ellsbury cost the Red Sox almost 10 runs (a full win).  Where should he really be?  I don’t know, probably somewhere in the middle, and probably closer to 08, but we won’t really know until he plays full time again.  His offensive numbers did improve from 08 to 09, so in both years he was a very serviceable player.

Brett Gardner

I maintain that Gardner doesn’t move unless the Yanks get Crawford, which does have a decent likelihood of happening.  If Gardner becomes available, he’s at the top of my list along with Choo.  Gardner became a full time player for the first time in 2010 (at the age of 26) and responded with an outstanding year.  A .383 OBP, a .358 wOBA, a 47/9 stolen base ratio, and the best outfield defense in baseball according to UZR (spent mostly in left).

B.J. Upton

Upton had a couple great years, at ages 22 and 23.  In the two years since, the continued improvement the Rays had hoped to see hasn’t come, as reflected in Upton’s wOBA starting in 07 (.387, .354, .310, .337).  Upton’s defense saved him in 2009 – he ended up with 2.2 wins above replacement – and though he bounced back a bit offensively in 2010, his defense relapsed, going from 7.7 and 6.6 runs above replacement in the years prior, to 0.2.  We could probably expect a bounce back defensively in 2011.  Ultimately, Upton provides value, and at age 26 he still has room for improvement, despite a couple disappointing years.  Upton was also paid $3M last year and is arbitration eligible the next two years.  I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Reds took a chance with him, but he certainly isn’t my first choice.

Josh Willingham

Willingham didn’t get a shot in the bigs until he was 26, but he’s hit in every season, pretty consistently too.  Last year was his best year in many accounts.  His defense leaves a little to be desired, but overall he performs.  He’ll be 32 next year and will probably see a bit of a raise in his third year of arbitration (he made $4.6M last year).  You likely know what you’re going to get with Willingham.  He might provide a bit of power, not a whole lot of defense, and he isn’t necessarily coming at a bargain, but you could certainly do worse.

Chris Young

Young may have turned a corner in 2010 at the age of 26.  But we can’t know for sure, and his defense has not been impressive until this year either.  Considering he’s getting $20.5M over the next three years, it seems a bit of a gamble.

So there you have it, a mini rundown of a few randomly selected LFers that the Reds may or may not be interested in.  If I were to rank my favorites I’d probably go…

Choo

Gardner

Ellsbury

Willingham

Upton

Young

I guess we’ll see what happens.